Ile-de-France regional councilor, what are Marie-Caroline Le Pen’s chances of being elected to the National Assembly during these 2024 legislative elections?
After the victory of the RN in the European elections, and the dissolution of the National Assembly, here is Marie-Caroline Le Pen in the campaign for the Legislatives. The Ile-de-France regional councilor since 2021 will be a candidate in the 4th constituency of Sarthe, stronghold of François Fillon. As a reminder, the RN, of which Marine Le Pen’s older sister is a member, largely won the European elections on June 9 with a score of 31%, allowing them to send 30 deputies to the European Parliament. In the 4th constituency of Sarthe, the RN even came clearly in the lead with 36% of the votes, followed by Renaissance (14%), then the Socialist Party/Place publique at 13%. And it is precisely in this constituency that the woman who had decided to withdraw from political life from 2000 to 2007 is running for the early legislative elections scheduled for June 30 and July 7.
The RN in a good position in the stronghold of François Fillon
Marie-Caroline Le Pen was invested by the National Rally (RN) in a constituency that she does not know. Indeed, if this airdrop occurs in a related territory such as the stronghold of the ex-Sarkozyist François Fillon, it nonetheless remains a blow whose risk remains controlled by the RN, as evidenced by its result during the last legislative elections in this 4th constituency of Sarthe. In 2022, during the last legislative elections, the first round saw the National Rally narrowly fail against La France Insoumise. First in the first round, totaling 21.30% of the votes, against 21.87% for the left-wing candidate. In the second round, the RN failed by a fraction, 49.85% against 50.15%. Enough to give legitimate hopes to the candidate of the National Rally for this time, to tip the balance in this direction.
What are the chances for Marie-Caroline Le Pen to be elected to the 2024 legislative elections?
In good position in the 4th district of Sarthe. If she is not the favorite, she should engage in a distance fight with Elise Leboucher, candidate nominated by the New Popular Front. Regarding the polls at the national level for these 2024 legislative elections, the fight rages between the two main forces in the country. The National Rally remains above the 30% voting intention mark. It even exceeds the symbolic bar of 35% of voting intentions and distances the left coalition (27%), which is given in second position in the latest Elabe survey for La Tribune.