The uprising a year ago had more effects on Russia’s internal politics than the war situation in Ukraine, political researcher Volodymyr Fesenko estimates.
KIEV Exactly one year ago, there was a dramatic time in Russia, when the leader of the Wagner private army Yevgeny Prigozhin rose in revolt and marched towards Moscow.
Moments of hope were experienced in Ukraine at that time, says a Ukrainian political researcher Volodymyr Fesenko.
– I remember that emotional avalanche in the early hours of the rebellion. But in the end it became a rebellion of disappointed expectations.
Fesenko heads the political research institute Penta in Kyiv. According to him, hardly anyone in Ukraine remembers Prigozhin’s coup attempt.
– Today, the situation is changing so quickly that the events of a year ago or the year 2022 already seem like history to Ukrainians.
Putin’s paranoia increased
Fesenko estimates the effects of the uprising on the course of the war in Ukraine to be minor. He says that the most important consequences occurred in Russia’s domestic politics, although they also have an impact on the war.
– Rebellion could [Vladimir] Putin’s power structures into an imbalance, and Putin had to react to this.
According to Fesenko, Putin’s first reaction was to assassinate Prigozhin.
– Putin didn’t kill Prigožin right away and didn’t lock him in prison because he was afraid it would lead to a chain reaction, where the remnants of the Wagner forces could rise to a new rebellion.
Another reaction was the recently seen changes in the Ministry of Defense. In May, President Putin ousted the longtime defense minister Sergei Shoigun. During the same month, four high-ranking generals were arrested.
– Behind these decisions is the fact that Putin does not want power to be concentrated in the hands of individual authorities using force, Fesenko explains.
It has been claimed in Ukraine that Putin will leave Moscow for the anniversary of Prigozhin’s uprising because he fears a new resistance.
– Let’s look at Putin’s behavior these days, it says a lot about his fears. In any case, Prigozhin’s rebellion has made Putin more paranoid, Fesenko says.
Wagner’s legacy still lives on
According to Fesenko, the events of a year ago gave Putin the opportunity to foment discord between the country’s army and the security service FSB.
In addition to that, the operational methods and methods of the mercenary army Wagner were inherited by the soldiers currently fighting at the front.
– Wagner’s legacy is still alive. But now it is the Russian army and not Wagner who recruits prisoners to the fronts.