The legislative elections scheduled for June 30 and July 7 will cause a change of government in the event of a new majority. And even if the Macronists win, the president could want to breathe new life.
In every election, most ministers are in ejection seats. In the event of a candidacy, the rule is to resign in the event of defeat. With these surprise legislative elections after the dissolution of the National Assembly, following the European elections placing the National Rally in the lead, the question of a reshuffle is more than likely. It remains to be seen what form it would take.
The main interested party is Gabriel Attal, Prime Minister of Emmanuel Macron. The former Minister of National Education wanted to be the fuse of these European elections, proposing his resignation according to information from BFMTV just before the announcement of the dissolution (remarks not confirmed by the Elysée). A request quickly rejected by the President of the Republic who wishes to see in Gabriel Attal the leader of the troops of the now former presidential majority.
If the National Rally wins these legislative elections on June 30 and July 7 or if it is the union of the left which emerges victorious, Gabriel Attal will be the second most short-lived Prime Minister of the Fifth Republic behind a certain Bernard Cazeneuve. For the name of his successor, the list begins to expand, in the event of defeat: Jordan Bardella, Jean-Luc Mélenchon, Laurent Berger, Fabien Roussel, François Ruffin…
But if Renaissance and its allies win, will Gabriel Attal still be Prime Minister? He could bear the brunt of the vagaries of public life, the president could wish to create a new dynamic and change the person responsible for embodying this renewal. Especially since the popularity of the young man is not really to the advantage of the executive. Quoted by Le Parisien, a left wing MP talks about his “discrepancy”. “When he was appointed in January, we were at 21% in the polls. We ended up at 15%! It is clear that we were out of step with our voters, being very tough on the sovereign and up to the endist on unemployment insurance. Gérald Darmanin, Bruno Le Maire, Sébastien Lecornu could also try to convince Emmanuel Macron that the time has already come for change for the last step in governance. However, the most likely hypothesis is that he will still be at the head of the government in the event of victory, since he is leading this campaign and he would embody victory.
Who will be new ministers in the event of a reshuffle?
Place your bets ! And in fact, the Olympic Games could be a major issue in this reshuffle. Who would be the future Minister of the Interior of Jordan Bardella or the Union of the Lefts? Some members of the Republicans think that Eric Ciotti sees himself as the future Minister of the Interior for the National Rally candidate. The names of Thierry Mariani and Sébastien Chenu are mentioned.
Which ministers in danger?
Gabriel Attal represents himself in his constituency, the 10th of Hauts-de-Seine, in Vanves. The minister of the Interior Gerald Darmanin is also representing himself in his electoral stronghold of the 10th constituency in the North. Stanislas Guerini will, according to AFP, be a candidate again in the 3rd constituency of Paris. Thomas Cazenave in the 1st constituency of Gironde. Olivia Grégoire is a candidate for re-election in the 12th district of Paris. Marie Guévenoux is a candidate for the legislative elections in the 9th constituency of Essonne. Frédéric Valletoux in the 2nd constituency of Seine-et-Marne. Sarah El Haïry is also a candidate for re-election and will represent the Macronist camp in the 5th constituency of Loire-Atlantique. Roland Lescure Minister Delegate for Industry and Energy, announced that he would run again in the 1st constituency of French people living abroad (North America) Prisca Thevenot announced that she would be a candidate again in the 8th constituency of Hauts-de-Seine. FAdila KhattabiMinister responsible for Disabled People, will run again in the 3rd constituency of Côte d’Or. Aurore Bergé, Minister responsible for Equality, will run again in the 10th constituency of Yvelines. Guest of BFMTV this Thursday, she affirmed that this was also “the most important election of our lives”. Frank Riester will be a candidate in the 5th constituency of Seine-et-Marne. Guillaume KasbarianMinister Delegate for Housing, will be a candidate again in the 1st constituency of Eure-et-Loir. Dominique Faure represents himself in the 10th constituency of Haute-Garonne. Marie Lebec will be a candidate in the 4th constituency of Yvelines. Stéphane Séjourné in the 9th district of the capital. Marc Fesneau will be a candidate for his succession in the 1st constituency of Loir-et-Cher. Agnès Pannier-Runacher is a candidate in the second constituency of Pas-de-Calais. Jean-Noel Barrot in the 2nd constituency of Yvelines according to AFP.
In the event of defeat, these ministers could pay the price of a reshuffle even in the event of a majority victory if they are not elected.
What date for a possible reshuffle?
In the event of a ministerial reshuffle, it will take place a few days after the result of the legislative elections. We should expect a rapid reshuffle, especially with the Olympics coming up and requiring active ministers for the Interior, for Transport and of course for Sports.
The President of the Republic can decide to carry out a reshuffle for various reasons, such as to restore momentum to a government or respond to political crises. In this case, it will impose itself on him for one reason: without a relative majority or without support from deputies, the government falls. The President will appoint the Prime Minister and, on the latter’s proposal, will appoint the other members of the government.