On the art of reading an electoral result. From the European elections, a prelude to the dissolution of the National Assembly, it would be tempting to remember two facts: the collapse of the presidential majority and the inexorable rise of the National Rally (RN). The Elysée chose another, consistent with its interests. “There is a majority in this country who belong to the Republican arc and who do not recognize themselves in the values of the extreme right.” Denial in the face of the 40% accumulated by the RN and Reconquest? Rather, the beginnings of a strategy for the vote on June 30 and July 7.
The presidential camp is setting up these anticipated legislative elections as a fight against the far right. From this solemnity, the executive draws a political consequence: the call for the gathering of republican forces to prevent the arrival in Matignon of Jordan Bardella.
The secretary general of Renaissance Stéphane Séjourné announced that the majority “will give the nomination” to outgoing deputies, including opposition, belonging to the “republican field” and wishing to “invest in a clear project” around the presidential majority . The message, which is essentially aimed at the Republicans (LR), is simple: the executive wants, again and again, rallies under its banner. As in 2022, when Emmanuel Macron opposed candidates “Together!” to a series of LR Macron-compatible deputies, guilty of having retained their label.
A soft form of rallying
Two years have passed. The next legislative elections will not follow the re-election of Emmanuel Macron but an electoral debacle of power. So, the Elysée adapts. To attract outgoing deputies into its net, the executive promises to take the first step. The presidential program could be modified. “In 2022, we reached out but it was not amendable, notes a loyalist of the head of state. There, the idea is to rebuild and agree on three or four priorities.” And to offer increased freedom to its last-minute Macronists. “The deal is above all that they vote on the budgets,” notes a minister.
The National Rally is also interested in the right, an animal injured by a new failure in the European elections. Marine Le Pen assured Monday that she planned not to present an RN candidate against LR candidates with whom an agreement had been reached, in order to “bring together”. The president of the far-right party Jordan Bardella spoke of “discussions” with “Republican executives, to whom I would like to reach out”, refusing, however, to say clearly whether he had spoken with the leader of the party Eric Ciotti.
The Republicans (LR), crossed by intense strategic dissensions, remain faithful to their strategy of independence. Neither RN, nor Macron. In appearance, at least. “It is out of the question to enter into a coalition with this power which has damaged France so much,” says LR president Eric Ciotti on X (ex-Twitter). Faithful to our values, we will lead this campaign around values from the right!” An executive from the moderate right confirms: “Renaissance wants to make a takeover bid on the right. I will not campaign on a coalition or submission to Macron, but on the incarnation of a third way between Bardella and him. “
This line was confirmed Monday during a meeting of the LR group, then at the end of a strategic meeting of the party’s staff. But the devil is in the details. This independent positioning prevails between now and the first round, with strategic ambiguity floating over the course of events. What about possible withdrawal agreements between the two towers? The right places a modest veil over this deadly subject.
The Ciotti case
Nothing says that this line will be followed to the letter. The LR group is more of an aggregate of individualities than of a homogeneous block. Its 61 members come from constituencies with diverse sociologies, both favorable to the far right and to Emmanuel Macron. Everyone thinks first of their survival. These local specificities can push a handful of them to change labels or enter into insidious agreements. A member of the government is already mentioning the mortal risk of LR elected officials in certain “triangular positions facing us and the RN”. “Some will ask themselves the question of a rapprochement with the RN,” anticipates an executive.
The case of Eric Ciotti makes people tremble internally. The comments of the deputy for Alpes-Maritimes on Monday in a group meeting about the RN sowed doubt among certain participants. Several deputies suspect the elected official of preparing a rapprochement with the RN to save his seat, while Jordan Bardella came well ahead in Nice in the European elections. “He first wants to save his skin in Nice. Perhaps he is also in the process of saying to himself: ‘perhaps they will be there, I want to be there,’ notes an MP. “It seemed to me to be talking about a union of the rights,” adds another. The head of the Republicans recently spoke to an LR executive about the formation of a “right-wing Nupes”.
The installation of groups in the National Assembly is finally an insidious “third round”. Maneuvers can then take place with a view to obtaining an absolute majority, which the government has lacked so much since 2022. LR has little chance of obtaining more than 289 deputies with its little arms, Renaissance is still stunned by the catastrophe of the Europeans. An LR advisor anticipates: “This third round agreement is the hypothesis which will be supported by the greatest number of elected officials.” Doesn’t the President of the Senate Gérard Larcher fear a parliamentary paralysis, a springboard for the RN for 2027? The Elysée also has this “third round” in mind. When the guns have spoken, perhaps the time will come for the diplomats. For now, it’s time for a phoney war.