The results of the latest polls on the European elections give the RN a large lead. They also draw some possible surprises for second place and for lists that are close to total elimination.
The 2024 European elections will take place this Sunday. For now, Jordan Bardella seems favorite, being credited with more than a third of the voting intentions, a score confirmed by theelectoral survey conducted among a panel of 11,000 people by Ipsos, Cevipof, the Jean Jaurès Foundation, the Montaigne Institute and Le Monde and published on June 3. Jordan Bardella also enjoys a large lead over his opponents who are more than 15 points behind.
The battle for second place could hold a big surprise: between Valérie Hayer, who represents the presidential majority, and Raphaël Glucksmann, the candidate of the Place publique – PS alliance, the gap measured by studies is often within the margin of ‘error.
At the back of the pack and below the 10% mark, four at the top of the list are jostling to stand out. Everything can still change but an order of arrival is emerging: Manon Aubry of the rebels, François-Xavier Bellamy of the Republicans, Marie Toussaint of the ecologists and Marion Maréchal of Reconquête. The fact remains that according to certain polls the right could overtake the rebels. Other studies have called into question the abilities of ecologists and Zemmourists to obtain at least 5% of the vote, the minimum threshold for having elected representatives in the European Parliament. The disappearance of French environmentalists from the European Parliament would also be a huge surprise, and the failure of Marion Maréchal would be a major political setback for Eric Zemmour’s party.
The 31 other lists, including that of the French Communist Party led by Léon Deffontaines, fail to achieve more than 5% and therefore have little chance of having any elected to the European Parliament, according to the results of the polls.
European polls
Results of polls on the 2024 European elections: the compiler
Since May 2023, we have been compiling in a graph the results of the main polls on the 2024 European elections. Very clear and increasing domination of the National Rally, fall of the Renaissance list, breakthrough of the left list… Here are the trends and dynamics observed more than a year before the election:
Polls favorable to Bardella’s RN…
The far-right party has been in the lead since the first polls on the European elections. The flame party has never been overtaken by its competitors and it has stabilized above the 30% mark since the beginning of April. A notable progression for the party which has never fallen below 25%.
…and catastrophic for Valérie Hayer and the majority
By dint of grabbing points, the far-right party is also widening the gap with the list of the presidential majority which is given second place by the 2024 European polls.Emmanuel Macron now appears around ten points behind his opponent, up to 16 points in the worst scenarios. The trends which are confirmed in studies after studies and which credit the majority of 15 to 19% of voting intentions in recent weeks are giving rise to uncertainty and even skepticism in the ranks.
A very clear breakthrough from the left
Nupes having exploded after barely a year of life, four lists are in the race for these 2024 European elections on the left. But a list stands out as the third force of the vote: the list of Raphaël Glucksmann for the PS and Place publique. Part of the same pack as the others, she soared to reach between 12 and 14.5% of voting intentions. Taking advantage of a useful vote on the left, she recovered 28% of Jean-Luc Mélenchon’s 2022 voters and attracted a portion of environmentalist voters.
From LFI to Reconquest, four lists neck and neck
Among the other left-wing lists, however, none stands out. The rebels of Manon Aubry and the ecologists of Marie Toussaint are jockeying for position in the polls, but one less from the poll the rebel list seems to be gaining a slight ascendancy, hovering around 8% of voting intention on average when the Greens oscillate between 5.5% and 8%. The EELV list is also experiencing some fears by not passing the 5% threshold necessary to have elected representatives in the European Parliament.
And these two lists fare also in the race with that of the Republicans for the camp of the traditional right. The polls on the European elections at this stage give François-Xavier Bellamy’s list at the same level as the score obtained during the last European elections, in 2019, i.e. 8% at best. In all the polls carried out since last summer and even more so since January 2024, the right-wing list has remained below 10% of voting intentions.
The Reconquest list, long lagging behind, has returned slightly to the levels of the others. However, it remains at the bottom of the ranking with 5 to 7% of voting intentions.
The communists far behind
At the back of the pack, it is the list of the French Communist Party represented by Léon Deffontaines who bring up the rear. But the communist list is in a worse position, because it is below the 5% threshold, at 2% of voting intentions.
Projections in the European Parliament: how many seats per party?
The results of the European elections will determine the future composition of the European Parliament and the balance of power between the different parties. 81 seats in Parliament are reserved for French elected officials and they will be distributed proportionally to each force which obtains at least 5% of votes according to their score in the ballot boxes. The party that won the elections will thus have more seats than the others. According to trends currently observed in surveys confirmed by a unprecedented survey by Ipsos for Euronews, the National Rally would win more seats and could gain up to 10 additional places to the 18th it already occupies. Conversely, the presidential camp could lose several places going from 23 elected officials to 17 or 15 according to projections.
On the left, the balances could remain approximately the same, as for the Republican right. These parties currently have between 6 and 12 places in Parliament. But the arrival of the Reconquest party should deprive these forces of a small handful of seats.
These national results influence the distribution of forces at European level and the latter risks changing following the June election. The EPP group of the center right and the right (where the elected Republicans sit) should remain the majority group and the Social Democratic group (where the elected PS sit) should retain the role of second force despite a small drop in the number of ‘elected ones. It is with the other groups that the real change would take place with a battle to become the third force in the hemicycle.
The Renew group, in which the presidential majority sits, could lose around twenty places in the face of the rise of the radical and extreme right – in France but also in other countries – and fall to 85 seats. At the same time, the conservative groups ID (which includes RN elected officials) and CRE (which should welcome those from Reconquest) could win seats. The ID group could even compete with Renew, also with 85 seats according to projections.
As a reminder, polls and seat projections are only the image at a given time of trends concerning voting intentions and cannot be understood as predictions or reliable results.