At Spånga IP in northern Stockholm, the sun is shining and many have gathered to be part of the ongoing Järva Week – which this year is hotter than ever. It starts when there is just over a week left until the EU elections on 9 June.
And it could be a fateful choice for some parties if they fail to attract voters now into the last. A Novus survey presented by TV4 Nyheterna and Göteborgs-Posten shows that the Christian Democrats fall below the 4 percent barrier. At the same time that the Center Party and the Liberals end up just above, which can be compared with last month’s survey when they were both below.
The center received a whopping 10.8 percent in the 2019 EU election and now support is at 4.7 percent. However, L is slightly higher than the election five years ago at 5.1 percent.
– We have three parties that in the previous survey were below the 4 percent threshold. L and C have crossed over on the right side of the border, while KD is just below the border. Here we also have some form of domestic political destiny choice. We know that both C and L probably cannot afford to fall out of the EU Parliament, because it could have consequences domestically as well, says Torbjörn Sjöström, CEO of Novus.
Why does it look like this?
– In general, it is difficult for the small parties to be seen at all. But here it is important for the parties to get to know the candidates they have, but also to find issues that are relevant to the voters that they hope these candidates can push for their mandate in Europe, he says.
Torbjörn Sjöström believes that even for parties that, with a margin, seem to get enough voter support to take one of Sweden’s 21 seats in the European Parliament, it is important to continue campaigning.
– The parties must get those who sympathize with the party in the parliamentary elections to actually go and vote, that is probably the Moderates’ biggest challenge.
But there is still a chance to make the winds blow in his party’s favor.
– Now it is an unusually compressed EU election campaign, although they usually are, it is shorter this year. This means that we can probably see a lot of changes in the last week. So much stands and falls in the media coverage and the debates, that the candidates and the parties come out with who they are and their issues. That’s actually where this election is decided, I’d say.
And the parties seem to have the occasional undecided voter.
– I would say that I am not that well read now. But I will read up a bit and then see which parties’ views fit in with mine, and then I will probably vote for that party, says 21-year-old Dur-e-Sameen Ahmad, who visits Järvaveckan.
– I thought I would vote so that you would avoid the question of whether you voted or not. But I’m not that aware, says 25-year-old Ellinor Bohlin Bernson.
Do you think it is just as difficult to know what to vote for when there are parliamentary elections?
– No, then I think there is much more talk about the election. This is a bit hushed up, I think, she says.
The measurement was carried out from 2 to 29 May through interviews with 2,325 people via telephone or SMS. Among the 2.5 percent other parties there are several, among others Folklistan. However, none of these parties gets more than half a percent themselves.