The regional water issue highlighted the historical differences between Finland and the Baltics in relation to Russia, says Markku Kangaspuro, director of the Aleksanteri Institute.
Jari Strömberg,
Vilma Romsi
Russia’s possible intentions regarding its maritime borders in the Gulf of Finland and the Baltic Sea have been received in two different ways. In Finland, the tone of voice has been reassuring and facts have been sought to support the action. In Lithuania, on the other hand, the votes have been stronger.
Director of the Alexander Institute of the University of Helsinki Markku Kangaspuro estimates that the differences in attitude are due to historical reasons.
– Perhaps it says the most about the difference in the position of the Baltic countries in relation to Russia and the political relations with Russia that have been tense for a long time compared to Finland. Kangaspuro says.
Kangaspuro reminds that the attitude of Finns can be explained pretty much by the president Mauno Koiviston with the line that “if you provoke, you shouldn’t be provoked”.
According to him, the view of Finland’s foreign policy leadership also seems very natural: let’s first find out what the issue is before we start drawing further conclusions.
The Russian war of aggression sharpens the interpretations
What if it was some sort of hybrid operation?
Since the information is still lacking, Kangaspuro is touting interpretations and urges to put the event “in its proper place”.
So, if it wasn’t about an effort to really change the borders, it’s pretty insignificant news.
– If we had a time of peace, the situation would not have escalated like this. Against this background, of course, it makes sense that at least one party acts both on the basis of information and with discretion.
– It does us no good if we believe that it might be a hybrid operation. The aim of releasing information like this is probably to increase uncertainty and maybe even incite fear. The fact that our own authorities would get involved in this cycle would certainly not increase people’s sense of security at least.
According to Kangaspuro, Finland’s traditional line of acting calmly, predictably and based on facts is quite effective overall.
Different traditions in Lithuania
However, Lithuania has reacted to the issue much more timidly.
– I think that this is probably not just one thing, but a long-term trend, guesses Kangaspuro.
– After all, Lithuania has been one of those cowardly countries that has been of the opinion that Ukraine has the right to attack Russia with Western weapons. It differs from the position of some other Western countries that help Ukraine.
According to Kangaspuro, the statements in Lithuania have gone so far that they could begin to hinder Russian merchant shipping and energy exports to the Baltic Sea. There have even been proposals to close the Danish straits to isolate Russia.
– If it is a hybrid operation, it will probably be used to react to rather harsh statements like this one about tightening countermeasures. Then, from my own point of view, it is not at all surprising that Russia would react with its own countermeasures. It’s a very typical way and a typical thing that you can not only expect, but you can foresee that this will inevitably happen.
It can also be a matter of bureaucracy or a mistake
On Tuesday evening, the Russian Ministry of Defense published a project draft on the government’s document portal. On Wednesday, it disappeared from the portal. Kangaspuro sees two possibilities in this matter. It could be a deliberately leaked document that was intended to provoke a reaction.
– Another option is that it has been a question of bureaucratic preparation for a longer period of time, where the process has progressed according to the wheels of the bureaucracy. Then it has appeared somewhere in the portal with the intention of taking it forward. The drafters haven’t thought about what kind of political message it can send.
It’s part of Russian culture that you don’t apologize for mistakes or correct what was said in general. According to Kangaspuro, it was quite enough when the president Vladimir Putin representative, press secretary of the Kremlin Dmitry Peskov denied the most radical interpretations that it was a political attempt to change the borders.
– That’s already quite a lot. We have a lot of experience with the fact that in Russia it may take a long time to correct mistakes and even wrong things that can be corrected sensibly from their point of view.