Hybrid influence experts estimate that Russia’s announcement about changing territorial water boundaries could have been a pure accident.
The Russian Ministry of Defense’s announcement about moving the sea borders could have been a pure accident, according to two experts in hybrid influence.
The Russian Ministry of Defense said on Tuesday that it intends to propose to the government of its country the transfer of maritime borders in the Baltic Sea. The changes would have concerned the sea borders against Finland and Lithuania.
Later, the information was disputed and the entire announcement about the border transfer project disappeared from the website of the Russian Ministry of Defense.
At the moment, there is no definite information on whether Russia intends to continue the project and what changing the borders would mean in practice.
Were the documents accidentally found?
Lecturer at the University of Jyväskylä, expert in hybrid influence Panu Moilanen considers it possible that it could have been a normal recalculation of Russia’s internal territorial water boundaries. This would be permissible in terms of the UN Convention on the Sea.
– I wouldn’t consider it a closed option at all that some party would like to define that border more precisely with more modern technology. And when documents have been prepared about it that have become public online, it’s as if they were discovered by accident, Moilanen reflects.
According to Moilanen, it is interesting that the documents were later deleted from the internet.
– Maybe it says something about whether it would have turned out in such a way that they were not meant to be there in the first place.
Network director of the Hybrid Competence Center Jukka Savolainen also considers it likely that it was about updating regional water boundaries.
Savolainen considers the reaction born in Finland to be exaggerated.
– I think that a fly became a bull, a storm in a glass of water, Savolainen characterizes.
According to him, it is not worth drawing very strong conclusions about hybrid influence at this stage.
The Finnish government does not find the situation worrying either.
Hinting is part of Russia’s playbook
According to Panu Moilanen, however, there are also facts that suggest that Russia intended to cause reactions in Finland.
According to him, it is strange that Finland and Lithuania were not notified in advance. On the other hand, it can also be due to the fact that the relations between the countries are frozen due to Russia’s military actions.
According to Moilanen, this kind of insinuation is part of Russia’s influence playbook.
– In Russia, it has always been a habit to publish information and news and hints, which have then caused attention to be paid to them here in the West or in Finland, says Moilanen.
On the other hand: even if it was just an accident, it could have been a happy accident for Russia, Moilanen points out.
– Yes, this would have been successful in a certain way, a hybrid operation born by chance, because it has received so much attention in Finland.
According to Moilanen, it is fundamentally good that in a free society like Finland, the media and decision-makers report on issues like this openly, and in a democracy that’s how it should happen.
– It is interesting how this can also be put to good use.