Since Russia launched its major ground offensive against the Kharkiv region last week, fighting has raged along Ukraine’s northeastern border.
During the Thursday and into the night of Friday, a 16-hour flight alert wailed. The alarm has not sounded for so long since the war started.
– It is a consequence of pressure from the Russian side and the desire to create an extremely difficult psychological effect, says Lieutenant Colonel Joakim Paasikivi about the Russian offensive.
– But robots, bombs, drones are being shot all the time. As soon as a MiG-31 takes off from an airport close enough, the alarm goes off, he continues.
“Major problems remain”
Paasikivi believes that Ukraine will find it more difficult before it gets better. And believe that it is only after the summer, when the support package from the USA and Europe has had a greater effect, that it brightens up.
– But the big problem remains is that they messed up with their mobilization system. There are not enough newly trained soldiers to replace those who have been at the front for a very long time or to reinforce at the front.
– Ukraine basically invests what it has. If only that issue had been taken care of when it was relevant a year ago, this problem would not have arisen. It is self-inflicted.
Should Ukraine make further mistakes, it could in the long run make it difficult to stand up to Russia. But it is not something that Paasikivi thinks will happen.
– If there is no knocking over of Ukraine, they will be able to recover after the summer when the situation stabilizes. But until then it will be hard.
“Can change direction this summer”
According to Paasikivi, there is speculation that Russia may change direction this summer.
– If they were to push, for example, at Sumy, then Ukraine would have a difficult problem. Or possibly in Donbas. But Sumy is a likely direction that Russia will try to continue on later.
Joakim Paasikivi also highlights that Ukraine continues to reduce the Russian capability, although in other places and in other ways than precisely the battles at the front.
– In recent days, Ukraine has carried out a major drone attack against the Russian naval base on the Russian mainland. They continue to strike against the Russian Black Sea Fleet with what appears to be fairly good success.