In the photos, the evening appears gentle and joyful in Tartous, Syria, on April 8. In this Mediterranean port city, Bashar el-Assad submits to a swarm of selfies before taking his place at the center of the iftar banquet, the breaking of the Ramadan fast, on the arm of his wife Asma. Relaxed, in a light black shirt, the Syrian dictator came to send a message to the whole world that evening, seven days after an Israeli strike eliminated seven Iranian commanders in the heart of Damascus. “He wanted to emphasize that, for him, it is business as usual, that this strike does not change anything in its regional strategy: Syria will not participate in Iran’s response and will not be the scene of the armed response to Israel”, observes Syrian analyst Haid Haid, researcher at Chatham House from London.
A very passive member of the “axis of resistance”
After thirteen years of civil war, Bashar al-Assad remains at the head of Israel’s big neighbor – the historic enemy – and on a drip from Iran. Since October 7 and the start of the war in Gaza, not a day has passed without the Israeli air force entering Syrian territory, most often to carry out attacks against Hezbollah arms depots or pro Shiite militias. -Iran. A member of the “axis of resistance” set up by Tehran, the Syrian regime, however, does not respond. Or so little.
Bashar al-Assad is content to encourage the “Palestinian resistance” and castigate the “Zionist enemy”, but his words remain in the air. “Since the start of the war in Gaza, Assad has done his best to stay away from any regional escalation,” continues Haid Haid. In reality, the former ophthalmologist allows: the Shiite militias who harass the American troops present in Syria; targeted Mossad assassinations of Iranian commanders; Israeli strikes on Damascus or Aleppo airports; attacks by pro-Iran militias towards the Golan Heights, territory disputed between Damascus and the Jewish state… “The widespread opinion among international leaders, whether in Moscow, Washington DC or Tehran, is to think that carrying out attacks in Syria has few consequences, says Dareen Khalifa, Middle East specialist at the International Crisis Group. It is a battlefield. low cost, which can serve as a launching pad for pro-Iran militias and a target for Israeli missiles. Israel may have miscalculated with its strike on the Iranian consulate on April 1, but as long as they only target certain facilities and people in Syria, the Israelis will get away with it.”
The first reason for this passivity is the state of the Syrian regime, bloodless after thirteen years of war. Alone, the Assad clan controls only a small area of territory, relying on its Russian and especially Iranian allies to hold two-thirds of Syria. The rest is in the hands of the Turks, the Kurds (aided by a thousand American soldiers) and a few independent armed groups. In his speech on November 11, the leader of Lebanese Hezbollah, Hassan Nasrallah, stressed that the Syrian regime was not present regarding the fight against Israel, while recognizing: “We cannot ask more from it.” “For ten years, Damascus’s policy has consisted of taking blows and not responding, or only minimally, because the priority of the Assad regime remains its own survival, maintains Joseph Bahout, director of the Policy Institute public Issam Farès in Beirut He has no desire to open a front with Israel, which is reciprocal: the Israelis almost never target the interests of the regime in Syria, but the pro-Iran militias and Iranian agents present there. place.” In power circles in the Middle East, several rumors point to collusion between the security services of the Assad clan and the Israeli army. This would also be the only way for Israel to have such precise information and to be able to eliminate Iranian commanders in the heart of Damascus.
A tenacious hatred against Hamas
These rumors are all the stronger as Bashar el-Assad has had a tenacious hatred of Hamas since 2012. At the time, while the regime was losing ground to the rebels, the Palestinian organization decided to leave Damascus to set up its headquarters. in Qatar, and thus marks its frontal opposition to the repression of the Sunni population by the Alawite power (a branch of Islam close to Shiism). Hamas would then have lent a hand to the rebellion, even sending men to fight in Syria, according to Assad’s account today. “In the wake of October 7, the Iranians went to Damascus to ask Bashar al-Assad to join the front against Israel,” assures Joseph Bahout from Beirut. His response was icy, matching his resentment against Hamas, which “he considers central to the uprising in Syria Assad wanted to show that the fate of this group no longer matters to him.” The official Syrian press agency never mentions the name of Hamas in its press releases on the war in Gaza, referring only to “the brave martyrs of Palestine”.
Far from the Palestinian enclave, Assad remains focused on his internal journeys. He is taking advantage of the attention paid to Gaza to resume his eradication of all opposition at home, with an intensive resumption of bombings since October, notably on Idleb, the rebel capital in north-west Syria. “Assad has disappeared from international radar thanks to crises elsewhere in the world, notably in Ukraine and Gaza, which allows the regime to benefit from a frozen conflict – or at least a forgotten conflict – in Syria,” underlines Joseph Bahout. The way is clear to move forward on the path to normalization.
Ostracized since 2013 and the use of chemical weapons against his own population, Bashar al-Assad now sits around the table when the Arab League meets to talk about the war in Gaza. Under the aegis of Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, who invited him to the Jeddah summit in May 2023, the Syrian dictator can now give his opinion on regional affairs and lecture those who “consider making a pact with the enemy Zionist”, as last November in Riyadh. “The internal situation is difficult for the regime, with a suffering economy, a poorly equipped army which only has access to a reduced part of its territory,” points out Syrian analyst Haid Haid. Assad has been able to take advantage of the war in Gaza to accelerate its normalization with the Gulf countries, which was highlighted by the appointment of an Emirati ambassador to Syria for the first time since 2011. This was undoubtedly a way for the United Arab Emirates [NDLR : qui disposent de relations avec Israël depuis les accords d’Abraham de 2020] to thank the Syrian regime, after asking it not to intervene in a regional escalation.”
The Syrian dictator is also banking on the future. He knows that by intervening against Israel, his efforts to reconnect with the West would be reduced to nothing. Especially since, in recent months, cracks have appeared in the European front against the butcher of Damascus. Some, like Denmark or Greece, are considering declaring Syria a safe country, in order to send back refugees present on their soil. “There is no longer a strong consensus between European governments on the subject of the Assad regime,” says Joseph Bahout. “I can assure you that behind the scenes, via the intelligence services, several European countries have resumed ties with Damascus. Some are going so far as to go there again. Increasingly, Europeans are waiting to see what the Americans will decide about Syria after the presidential election in November.
In Washington, several signals are disturbing the message regarding Bashar al-Assad. The Caesar Act, which sanctions any company or country that could collaborate in any way with the Syrian regime, expires at the end of the year. In February, the House of Representatives voted by a large majority (389 votes for, 32 against) a new law containing a salvo of sanctions against the regime and against those who participate in its normalization. But according to the Washington Post, The White House excluded these new sanctions from a legislative package passed in April, probably so as not to affect its Gulf allies and aggravate the regional situation in a tense Middle East. Enough to sow doubt in people’s minds. On the shores of the Mediterranean, Bashar al-Assad can smile.
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