Who could have imagined, in December 2021, the Russian invasion of Ukraine ? A year ago, the assault on the Capitol? To counter the threats that surround us, the Ministry of the Armed Forces has been working for many years on scenarios for France’s entry into the war. Several structures – from the operations planning center to the doctrine center (CPCO) and command education center (CDEC) are even dedicated to this prospective work. For three years, the armed forces have also financed the Observatory of Future Conflicts, which brings together a research consortium on threats between now and 2040, led both by the Foundation for Strategic Research (FRS) and the French Institute of International Relations (Ifri). The famous Red Team, made up of researchers and writers, is preparing anticipatory thoughts for the army by 2060.
Alexandra Saviana, journalist at L’Express, spent a year with these strategists responsible for imagining the most devastating combinations. She signed, this May 16, The Dark Scenarios of the French Army (Robert Laffont), a dive into the 11 catastrophic conflicts that await the French forces between now and 2030. Supported by the analyzes of 106 experts, these stories of warlike gears make us discover the “mental paths” of the great powers – l The expression comes from Antoine Bourguilleau, officer in charge at the CDEC war game unit. This work follows an eponymous report published in March 2023 in L’Express, in which scenarios had been developed according to the suggestions of our witnesses, the law of Murphy, engineer and American soldier: “Everything that is likely to go wrong will go wrong.” Russia, China, cyber, jihadism… As in the previous L’Express report, the majority of the eleven hypotheses overlap those that the armies are looking into. These are in no way forecasts, but prospective work.
EPISODE 1 – 2025, Algerian soldiers target Toulon: the war scenarios of the French army
February 2026 – The Middle East is on fire
The convoy of Brigadier General Ismael Qaani, head of the Iranian Al‐Quds Force, heads towards Damascus international airport. He is in the company of the leader of the Liwa Fatemiyoun, one of the Iranian militias, made up of Afghans who left several years ago to fight in Syria in support of Bashar el‐Assad.
[…] As the convoy arrives near the airport, an American MQ‐9 Reaper drone chases it. Across the Atlantic, the order is given to fire. The two leaders were killed, as were five Iranian officers and four militiamen. Washington explains the assassination by indicating that the Al‐Quds force, led by Qaani, would have ordered the Fatimids to facilitate the transit of weapons to the Lebanese Hezbollah, in order to carry out attacks against Israeli and American targets.
“We would find ourselves in a scenario similar to that which the region already experienced in January 2020,” recalls Julien Nocetti, associate researcher at the Russia-Eurasia Center at Ifri and teacher-researcher in cyber at Saint-Cyr. “A US army drone had targeted the convoy of Qassem Soleimani, then head of the Al‐Quds Force, which was passing through Iraq. One could imagine that an action of this type could well take place again.”
[…] Between March and May 2026, around twenty attacks hit American and Israeli targets in the region. They are unclaimed, but Washington attributes them to the action of Iranian militias. In Tehran, the operation nevertheless has a name: Operation Martyr Qaani.
Submarines on alert
[…] On May 31, Operation Chariots of God was launched. 55 Israeli F‐35s take off from Ramon air base, in the Negev desert, south of Jerusalem. Based on information from Mossad and the CIA, the fighter jets fly towards several uranium enrichment sites, each of which falls within the combat radius of the Israeli planes: that of Natanz, in the heart of the Iran, from Isfahan, a few kilometers away, and finally from Fordo, 150 kilometers from Tehran. At the same time, more than 1,500 soldiers are positioned along the Lebanese border, while 2,000 are sent to the West Bank. All of the country’s submarines present in the Mediterranean are on alert.
3802 cover scenarios near east
© / Legends Cartography
“The IDF has no desire to fall back into the trap that pitted it against Lebanese Hezbollah in 2006, where the war ended without Israel having achieved its declared objectives. In the event of a new conflict, the Israeli army would undoubtedly deploy unprecedented firepower to try to do maximum damage in a very short time, analyzes Didier Leroy, researcher at the Royal Higher Defense Institute in Belgium. They have announced the color for a long time: they do not. ‘would have no interest in letting the conflict get bogged down.’
[…] Several hundred deaths are to be deplored. A large part of the international community expresses its indignation at this decision by Israel. China and Russia call for calm. The UN, paralyzed, takes no decision.
[…] A Hezbollah commando tries to cross the border, and a very violent altercation breaks out. There are 18 dead, including six civilians. “Within this pro‐Iranian militia assembly, the centerpiece is undoubtedly Hezbollah. It is by far the most robust, most trained and best equipped actor,” recalls Didier Leroy. The northern front is the black beast of the IDF, a front destined to flare up again in the future. That day, the UNIFIL troops present in South Lebanon, including French troops, will find themselves caught in a very high intensity conflict. The 700 French soldiers present in the UN peacekeeping force are not supposed to intervene, but are quickly overwhelmed by the scale of the conflict.
Flood of fire
In the twenty‐four hours that followed, the deluge of fire that fell on southern Lebanon and the northern Israeli border led to the deaths of 220 Lebanese civilians, 16 Israelis, 14 soldiers from the United Nations Intermediate Force in Lebanon. (UNIFIL), including four French soldiers. […]
In mid-June, four hostages including a Frenchman, two British and an American were accused of having spied on Iran on behalf of the West, then threatened with being sentenced to death. At the same time, cyberattacks of rare intensity are taking place almost everywhere in the West. In France, traffic light problems in several districts of Toulouse and Marseille lead to accidents. “Tehran would wage an asymmetrical war, which would follow a very Iranian logic: you set fire to us, we set it to you,” continues Elie Tenenbaum. […]
After three months of negotiations, a ceasefire was agreed between Tel‐Aviv and Tehran. Despite signing in Oman, Mohammed bin Salman is largely credited with [NDLR : le Premier ministre de l’Arabie saoudite] – who worked a lot behind the scenes – the merit of this time of peace. This man, who had blood on his hands for having ordered the assassination of journalist Jamal Khashoggi, is now celebrated as the great peacemaker of the Middle East. […] The Saudi voice now counts much more than that of Paris in the region – and beyond.
The dark scenarios of the French army. Understand the threats that await us, by Alexandra Saviana. Robert Laffont, 240 p., €19.
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