(Finance) – Despite the heavy negative effect of the costs of the Superbonus on Italy’s public finances, according to the Fitch rating agency the country’s budget situation is today “better than we expected at the beginning of the pandemic“. Furthermore “it is possible” that later the figures of debt-to-GDP ratio are “even lower than our current estimates”: he explained Malgorzata Wegner, director of public debt ratings at Fitch during a webinar illustrating the recent confirmation of the ratings on Italy. On May 3, Fitch confirmed a BBB rating for Italy, with a stable outlook.
The expert explained that now a key element will be to see how the implementation of the new rules on EU public finances envisaged by the revision of the Stability and Growth Pact will be carried out. According to the agency, these will imply for Italy the need to carry out “a structural adjustment of half a percentage point of GDP per year”, said Malgorzata.
It is almost certain that Italy will end up under EU procedure for excessive deficit, given that the GDP deficit it recorded last year was “the highest in the entire EU”, Malgorzata recalled, largely due to the costs of the Superbonus, which however also had positive effects in terms of economic growth
But precisely, according to the agency the country’s prospects they are not alarmist: “we feel confident that Italy will not lose access to the Next Generation Eu funds”, the Pnrr funds, therefore, and that by respecting the EU rules on accounts “it will not lose access to the Tpi (anti-spread) mechanism “of the ECB”.