Who could have imagined, in December 2021, the Russian invasion of Ukraine ? A year ago, the assault on the Capitol? To counter the threats that surround us, the Ministry of the Armed Forces has been working for many years on scenarios for France’s entry into the war. Several structures – from the operations planning center to the doctrine center (CPCO) and command education center (CDEC) are even dedicated to this prospective work. For three years, the armed forces have also financed the Observatory of Future Conflicts, which brings together a research consortium on threats between now and 2040, led both by the Foundation for Strategic Research (FRS) and the French Institute of International Relations (Ifri). The famous Red Team, made up of researchers and writers, is preparing anticipatory thoughts for the army by 2060.
Alexandra Saviana, journalist at L’Express, spent a year with these strategists responsible for imagining the most devastating combinations. She signed, this May 16, The Dark Scenarios of the French Army (Robert Laffont), a dive into the 11 catastrophic conflicts that await the French forces between now and 2030. Supported by the analyzes of 106 experts, these stories of warlike gears make us discover the “mental paths” of the great powers – l The expression comes from Antoine Bourguilleau, officer in charge at the CDEC war game unit. This work follows an eponymous report published in March 2023 in L’Express, in which scenarios had been developed according to the suggestions of our witnesses, the law of Murphy, engineer and American soldier: “Everything that is likely to go wrong will go wrong.” Russia, China, cyber, jihadism… As in the previous L’Express report, the majority of the eleven hypotheses overlap those that the armies are looking into. These are in no way forecasts, but prospective work.
Scenario 1 – An Algerian-Moroccan war
All systems at the military port of Toulon are on alert. An Iskander ballistic missile, of Russian origin, is heading straight for the base. The catastrophe is approaching, before the machine is intercepted by the ground-air defense system placed ahead of the Mediterranean Sea. This time, the base is safe and sound. Next time, there’s no guarantee she’ll be as easily taken out of harm’s way. Despite the country of manufacture of the missile, Paris is not in direct conflict with Moscow. The order to target Toulon was given much closer, on the other side of the Mediterranean. This order comes from somewhere in Algeria.
However, the first escalation did not take place between Paris and Algiers. It all started with skirmishes in the western Sahara. Tensions between Rabat and Algiers, which have already worsened since the cutting of diplomatic relations between the two countries in the summer of 2022, have only gotten worse. “These two countries have reached such a deterioration in their relations, even going as far as a breakdown in their diplomatic relations, that nothing can be ruled out,” said diplomat Xavier Driencourt, former French ambassador to Algeria. 2008 to 2012, then from 2017 to 2020. […]
The situation is degenerating
On August 17, Algerian armor occupied the Figuig oasis. The territory, landlocked between Morocco and Algeria, is a hotbed of tensions between the two countries. Soldiers are now blocking the passage of Moroccan date farmers, who walk daily to this location to reach their orchards. Unlike previous crises – the border has been officially closed since 1994 but a pass exists for farmers – the Algerian army gave no indication before its intervention. […]
On August 22, a unit of 35 Algerian soldiers entered Moroccan territory in the early morning. Gunfire is exchanged at the border. The toll is heavy: three Moroccan soldiers are killed, and 11 injured, while four deaths and 18 injured are to be counted on the Algerian side. At midday, despite the diplomatic ballet that has taken place in recent days to calm the two regional powers, the escalation continues: Rabat denounces an “unacceptable intrusion” which threatens “the integrity of its territory “. […] Algeria and Morocco go to war. […]
In France, we are watching the situation degenerate all the more as we fear an export of the conflict to the national territory. “Moroccan services have been very active on French soil to send messages recently,” notes Elie Tenenbaum, director of the Center for Security Studies at the French Institute of International Relations (Ifri). It is not excluded , to the extent that the families of dignitaries from both countries have homes in France, children who go to school in France, that events can take place in France.” […]
2025, Algerian soldiers target Toulon: the war scenarios of the French army
© / Legends Cartography
A bloody conflict
Ten days later, the conflict became bloody and short-lived. An incursion by Algerian armored vehicles near Oujda, the capital of eastern Morocco, ended in a resounding failure. The Moroccans destroy around fifteen Algerian battle tanks. Algiers has 30 deaths in its ranks, while Rabat’s losses remain low. […]
A ceasefire is established between the two countries thanks to the mediation of Egypt. But the collective relief is short-lived. As a result of this defeat, the Algerian regime is greatly weakened. “After such a conclusion to the conflict, a regime like the one in force today in Algeria would be shaky,” continues Elie Tenenbaum. “There would be the risk of it becoming as paranoid as it is fragile.” […] Weakened, power is contested by political factions hostile to France, who present Paris as an enemy to be fought to achieve the unification of a fractured Algerian nation. […] On November 16, the Algerian president accused France of “malice” and assured that he was ready to “defend the homeland”. The next day, Iskander missiles supplied by Moscow were fired into the Mediterranean Sea as part of an impromptu exercise. […]
Evacuation operation
Worried about the instability in Algeria – the country seems to be fragmenting into different factions – Paris decides to organize an evacuation operation. “Around 80,000 people belong to the French community in Algeria, points out Xavier Driencourt. But the problem with the evacuation of nationals is that, of these 80,000, 78,000 are Franco-Algerian dual nationals. They are therefore considered Algerian by the Algerian authorities, which would in fact involve additional complications, while people with dual nationality would seek to leave for France.” […]
As retaliation for what it considers to be an attack, and against the advice of those still in power in Algiers, the most radical part of the junta gets its hands on some of the Algerian military equipment. She sends missiles targeting French ships. One of them hits his target. For several days, the horrific images of a French amphibious helicopter carrier (PHA) crashing in the Bay of Algiers, the crew fleeing to avoid sinking, played in a loop on all television channels. The evacuation operation is generally considered a success, but four soldiers died. […]
Algerian chaos
While a ceremony paying tribute to deceased soldiers takes place at Les Invalides, Emmanuel Macron learns that a second Iskander missile fired by the junta targeted the Toulon military base. […] “Today, such an event is unimaginable. But in the context of a complete collapse, of phobia of French action plus a poorly controlled junta? estimates Elie Tenenbaum. The question of the response would be thorny.” […]
With the greatest discretion, a special joint operation with Algerian soldiers loyal to power is carried out on Algerian soil to arrest those responsible. Two Rafale M take off from the aircraft carrier Charles de Gaulle. Guided by Algerian soldiers on the ground, they carried out several targeted strikes. Ten days later, we learned through the press of the execution of the sponsors. Despite the elimination of part of the junta, Algeria is sinking into chaos.
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