Russia’s ground offensive against the Kharkiv region opened up a new front in the war.
The fighting has been described as fierce, but Russia has been unable to make any breakthroughs in the region.
– Ukrainian information indicates that Russia deployed five battalions, which is remarkably small for a major offensive, says Joakim Paasikivi, lieutenant colonel at the Norwegian Defense Academy.
Exactly how the fighting has gone in northeastern Ukraine in recent days is unclear. Ukraine’s commander-in-chief, Oleksandr Syrskyi, stated that Russia had made some progress, but that Ukraine had pushed them back in several places. The situation at the front is described as changing.
– It is unclear, there is information that goes in different directions. But overall it does not seem to be a major Russian breakthrough, says Joakim Paasikivi.
“Worrying information”
The information about the Russian ground offensive came on Friday. At a press conference in Kiev, President Zelenskyi announced that the fighting began in the morning and that Ukraine met the offensive with both artillery and troops.
– The battles seem to have mainly been fought between the Russian border and the Ukrainian defense lines, which are a little way in. You don’t dig exactly at the border, says Paasikivi.
At the same time, information has arrived, including from the BBC that the Russians must have “walked in” and that the Ukrainian defense was poorly prepared for the offensive.
– There is worrying information that Ukraine’s defense preparations have been in the wrong places and have been insufficient, says Paasikivi.
According to the information, defense positions should have been placed incorrectly tactically, fields should not have been mined and the Russian soldiers should not have encountered any major resistance.
– And around Vovchansk, which is a hub, there are reports that there have been sufficient defense preparations. They mean that the units have to dig at the same time, which creates problems, says Paasikivi.
Fits in before support from the US arrives
President Zelenskyi has stated that Russia’s idea with the offensive against Kharkiv was to spread out and thin out the Ukrainian defense, by opening up a new front. At the same time, it could be an attempt to break through the Ukrainian defense line.
– I think there can be both parts behind why people like it. Russia assesses that it has a time gap before all the US support has arrived and Ukraine can stabilize the situation. But also that they think they have enough connections to push the entire front and then take advantage of a gap when it comes, says Paasikivi.
There may also be other advantages for the Russians to focus on the Kharkiv region, according to Paasikivi. It is easier to fight in the areas that have not had defensive lines set up since 2014 or 2022.
– What the Russian side wants to achieve is something similar to the Ukrainian Kharkiv offensive, to get in deep and create a leadership collapse. But I don’t think they have the same opportunities as Ukraine had, says Paasikivi.