Four Syrian citizens were stopped in the Russian border area near Kostamu this week. According to the Russian security authority FSB, the migrants were on their way to Finland.
According to preliminary information, Russian border officials stopped the Syrians in a forest on the border.
In addition, the security authorities arrested the driver who had taken the migrants to the border area. Syrians now face up to five years in prison.
Delovoi Peterburg and Novaya Gazeta reported the arrest of the Syrians on May 8.
The arrests of Kostamus are special, because the FSB has previously said that they have made arrests mostly around the Leningrad region, in the Lahdenpohja district in Karelia and Pskov, and in the Jaama district, i.e. in areas located near Estonia.
During February, the FSB said it had arrested at least 67 third-country nationals in border areas across the Leningrad region.
In November, Russia pushed people across the border as part of its hybrid operation, but now it has suddenly started to actively publicize apprehensions in the border zone.
What changed?
Expert on hybrid threats and Russia Hannah Smith estimates that the terrorist attack in Moscow in March at least changed Russia’s policy regarding immigrants.
– When the perpetrators’ Tajik connection became public, Russia could no longer rely on the narrative that it is open to foreigners and cannot control movement through its territory. It would have made Russia look like a weak state that has been let down by the control apparatus, says Smith.
According to Smith, the background is influenced, for example, by Russia’s recent policy, with which the country has tried to block the mass exodus of the educated population.
– From the point of view of the Russian administration, it would seem strange if anyone was allowed to pass through the country at the same time as Russia tightens the laws on leaving the country.
According to Smith, Finland is currently not the number one target of Russia’s hybrid influence.
– The Finnish border is closed. If people start coming here, it means that the Russian border authorities are corrupt or they are not up to date with the situation and cannot control the border. Neither of these is a good story for Russia.
The video below shows Moayad Salam’s trip to Finland last October. interviewed Salam in this story.
However, the hybrid threat is still present because it is to Russia’s advantage.
– Although Poland is better prepared for the hybrid threat this time than in 2021, it will only benefit Russia if Europe’s attention turns away from Ukraine.
Smith believes that the next attempts to influence will be seen at the Polish border in the summer.
Arabic social media groups are now discussing trips to Belarus
During the spring, has followed the discussions of Arabic-speaking social media groups on the messaging service Telegram.
Telegram groups reveal that interest in Finland has waned. The last mention of Finland is from April.
Research Manager Joni Virkkunen The Karelian Research Institute of the University of Eastern Finland says that it may be wave motion.
– When a route comes up in the discussion, interest in it usually increases.
Virkkunen explains that in transit migration, migrants, various helpers and people smugglers look for new routes and move from one place to another very dynamically.
Finland’s eastern border has been closed since December.
According to the Finnish Border Guard, Finland has arrived on 31.7. after a total of 1,319 asylum seekers.
In Arabic-speaking social media groups, it is not believed that the Finnish authorities will open their border posts in the near future. Crossing the land border is seen as difficult, because the information about the arrests by the Russian authorities in the border zone has also reached Arabic-speaking groups.
Now the groups are discussing alternative routes to Europe.
Belarus, Serbia, Greece and Bulgaria as options
has not been able to independently check all the claims that are spreading in social media groups, but based on the discussions, it seems that many are planning to cross the border between Belarus and Poland in the summer months.
Many people now also consider a boat trip from Turkey to Greece a viable option. Serbia and Bulgaria are also seen as possible routes to Western Europe.
– Routes are affected by many things. For example, the land border, the actions of the authorities on both sides of the border and the possibility of corruption, i.e. whether it is possible to bribe the border authorities to get across the border.
There is practically no border control between the allied countries Russia and Belarus, so it is easy to travel to Belarus from Russia.
The screenshots below show the discussions in the Arabic Telegram group. These conversations ask how to get to Belarus and how much it costs. The answers say that you can get to Minsk from Moscow by car in about 11 hours and it costs about 250-300 euros.
Some have already set off to try crossing the border to Poland in small groups, according to Telegram messages.
According to the experiences of Telegram chatters, crossing the Polish border is difficult at the moment. You may have to spend up to ten days in the forests of Belarus before a suitable time to cross the border opens up.
Virkkunen points out that Belarus practically branded itself as a transit country in the campaign of hybrid influence in 2021, when the country pushed thousands of migrants towards the Polish border.
Also according to Smith, it is obvious that Russia is interested in migrants trying to reach Europe via Belarus, even though Poland, the European Union and NATO are better prepared for the hybrid threat this time than in 2021.
– It’s all about mental images. Russia wants to create images of armed authorities, barbed wire and military power, says Smith.
According to the Russia expert, Finland succeeded well in fending off Russia’s hybrid influence, because it made the immigrant’s entry into the country appear well controlled. Even though the police were visible, people were received in an orderly and polite manner.
Russia launched an instrumented immigration operation at the end of November
Virkkunen of the University of Eastern Finland has studied the movements of migrants in 2015–2016. Also then, Russia organized a hybrid influence campaign.
– In 2015–2016, many people didn’t even know where Finland was. At that time, many were completely at the mercy of smugglers, says Virkkunen.
Now, according to Virkkunen, the migrants have been much more active. The role of the state or smugglers is no longer so central in people’s movements.
For example, in Arabic-language Telegram groups, migrants share information about unreliable smugglers, organize themselves into small groups for border crossing, and ask about car trips from Russia to Belarus for border crossing.