Israel appears to be beginning its final show in its fight against the extremist organization Hamas in Gaza. Over the weekend, Israel’s war cabinet approved the start of a military ground operation in Rafah, which has been the last refuge for more than a million Palestinians.
Israel justifies the operation with the fact that there are significant Hamas fighting bases in the area. In order for Hamas to no longer threaten Israel, its military capability must be completely destroyed, Israel says.
Both the military expert and CMI’s project manager responsible for the Middle East peace process are of the opinion that Israel will not succeed in its goal militarily in the long run.
– For example, it was already seen in Afghanistan that the US’s effort to oust the Taliban only strengthened it in the end, Martti Ahtisaari’s expert from the peace organization CMI Cecilia Pellosniemi says.
What is Hamas’ fighting ability?
Information about the losses suffered by Hamas varies.
Hamas is estimated to have had around 30,000–40,000 fighters before its terrorist attack in October.
The Israeli Armed Forces (IDF) says having destroyed 19 of Hamas’ 24 combat battalions. It says it killed about 14,000 Hamas fighters.
In March, Hamas said it had lost 6000 fighters. US intelligence estimates are somewhere between the figures given by Israel and Hamas.
The newspaper The Jerusalem Post estimates that of the Hamas fighters about 30 percent now hiding in Gaza.
Hamas’s ability to fire rockets has weakened significantly – they have not flown beyond southern Israel since January.
The British Broadcasting Corporation BBC is figured out, how much of the Hamas tunnel network Israel has destroyed. The IDF says only that it has destroyed “a large part of the terrorist infrastructure”.
IDF releases analyzed by the BBC point to the destruction of 400 tunnel mouths. However, tunnels are known to run under Gaza for a total of about 700 kilometers, so destroying the entire tunnel network is considered impossible.
The blockade of Gaza has resulted in Hamas not receiving additions to its weapons arsenal from its allies, Defense Forces Research Institute Lieutenant Colonel Juha Mäkelä says.
On the other hand, CMI expert Cecilia Pellosniemi points out that, according to some experts, a large part of Hamas’ weapons are manufactured in Gaza.
For example, the United States is evaluatedthat although Israel has succeeded in weakening Hamas, the extremist organization still likely has the ability to continue its armed activities for years to come.
What is Israel aiming for in Rafah?
Mäkelä, who is familiar with the armed forces and security policy of the Middle East, says that the ground attack on Rafah can have two goals.
– We can either try to pressure Hamas to raise its hand and negotiate, says Mäkelä.
– Or the attack can be continued in such a way that the purpose is really to destroy the last weapon bases and prevent it from being possible to fire rockets or use anti-tank weapons against Israel from that entire area.
In addition, the operation may have a political goal. There are parties in the Israeli government that believe the war should continue until the end.
– Regardless of how extensive an operation Israel carries out, the current government can later state that all stones were turned to defeat Hamas and free the hostages, Pellosniemi says.
What does the fighting in Rafah look like?
Israel has ordered people in the eastern part of Rafah to move to Khan Yunis, which has become a ruined city due to the war. The first evacuation order applies to more than 100,000 people.
– These civilians have nowhere to go. Surely everyone also understands that these are traumatized people with great humanitarian needs. Their transfer to another place is not an easy operation, Pellosniemi says.
Mäkelä says that conclusions about possible consequences for civilians can be drawn from the destruction caused by Israel’s ground operation so far. Neat pinpoint strikes are not possible in a densely populated area.
In addition, Hamas still has around a hundred hostages alive, which it is suspected of holding underground in its tunnels.
– As long as it is known that the hostages are still alive, those tunnels cannot be blown up directly. You have to go there first to fight, says Mäkelä.
According to Mäkelä, all this affects the fact that the operation is prolonged. He estimated that a full ground attack on the area would take several weeks.
The graphic below shows how many people have packed into Rafah:
Will Israel be able to destroy Hamas?
According to Mäkelä, Israel will gain more time with its military actions in Gaza, if nothing else. It has succeeded in destroying Hamas’s military capability significantly, the lieutenant colonel says.
– Israel is doing its best to ensure that Hamas is no longer capable of operations like the October terrorist attacks in the future. It will take a long time before Hamas recovers from this war, Mäkelä estimates.
The destruction of Hamas may end there, unless a lasting political solution to the conflict in the Middle East is found.
Many of Hamas’ political leaders, such as the organization’s top leader Ismail Haniyya, live abroad. In addition, Hamas has cells elsewhere in the Middle East, says Mäkelä.
– Ideology cannot be defeated with weapons, and Hamas cannot be destroyed as an organization with the Gaza war.
Besides, Israel cannot continue its war in Gaza forever. Citizen opinion still favors stronger prioritizing the release of hostages instead of waging war. In addition, approximately 600 Israeli soldiers have died in the ground attack, which arouses dissatisfaction among the voters.
Pellosniemi says that Israel has only increased the security threat to itself in the long term with its military actions. In addition, it has raised opposition to itself in other parts of the world.
– In Palestine, people support armed resistance because they have nothing left to lose, Pellosniemi says.
For them, the current war is perhaps the last chance to have an independent state where their rights are realized, Pellosniemi says.
– If Hamas is to be destroyed militarily, it would require strict control of the population of Gaza, but I don’t see that as a realistic option. But Israel still does not have a realistic plan that takes into account the needs of the Palestinians for managing Gaza after the war.
According to Pellosniemi, the only way to guarantee the safety of both Israel and the Palestinians is a long-term political process, which could include security guarantees and, for example, a disarmament process. According to him, the Palestinians feel that the only possibility is an independent state in which self-government, human rights and, for example, free movement and self-government are realized.
– The international community plays a big role in this.