Climate transition, artificial intelligence, autonomous vehicles, electrification: manufacturers have never had to face so many changes at the same time. L’Express took stock of the state of the sector with Luc Chatel, president of the Automobile Platform, former minister of Nicolas Sarkozy.
L’Express: Registrations recorded a record in 2023. Does this dynamic suggest the end of the tunnel for the automotive sector?
Luc Chatel: Registrations have actually increased by 16% in France, but this is only a blip. They still remain 20% lower than 2019. Since the epidemic, we have lost, cumulatively, the equivalent of twelve months of sales! Which means that the automobile industry is facing the biggest transformation in its history, the conversion to electric, at a time when the European market, and the French market in particular, is historically low. With 1.8 million new vehicles in 2023 and 1.6 million in 2022, we have returned to the level of activity of the early 1970s.
Does the decline in purchasing power explain this sluggishness?
Several factors come together, in a context where the buyer of a new car is around 59 years old and where the average age of the fleet exceeds 11 years. Inflation is one of them, with the resulting postponement of purchasing intentions. The impact on prices of switching to electric is another. The cost of a battery-powered vehicle is overall 50% higher than its thermal equivalent. The public authorities have therefore decided unilaterally to put an end to the internal combustion engine in favor of a more expensive solution for the consumer, and which will remain so for the long term. Finally, as in all transitional phases, customers find themselves a little lost. They don’t always know what choice to make.
The waltz of the helpers Doesn’t it help to confuse them a little more?
Since I signed the strategic contract for the 2018-2022 sector, we have always told our interlocutors that the consumer needs purchasing support, the time to compensate for this price gap, with long-lasting and stable systems. . Because permanent change makes them illegible for the customer.
The government has invested massively in purchasing aid. They represent an envelope of 1.5 billion in the budget this year. So it’s very significant. But the rules have not remained invariable from the beginning. Regulatory instability is undoubtedly detrimental to the market.
The elimination this year of incentives for the professional market, which represents 50% of sales, represents further bad news. Especially since it is a sector which plays a major role as prescriber. Nothing better than company fleets to familiarize employees with the advantages of electric driving.
We are of course aware of the constraints weighing on public finances. But look at our German neighbor. Since the removal of aid in December, we have seen a worrying collapse in electric sales. This is already reducing the market share of these models in Europe and poses a risk to compliance with the objectives of the European CAFE standard for 2030. [NDLR : qui impose un rejet maximal de 59 grammes de CO2 par kilomètre aux véhicules neufs].
Is the decarbonization of French industry well underway? ?
The automotive industry is undoubtedly the first to completely change its model and provide solutions to the climate challenge. From this point of view, in terms of decarbonization, the principle of eco-conditionality of purchasing aid, decided in France at the end of 2023, is a good thing. CO2 emissions are now measured over the entire life cycle of the vehicle, including, therefore, during the production and transport phases. We regretted, when the decision was taken to put an end to thermal engines in 2035, that the measures were limited only to emissions at the outlet of the exhaust. Carbon neutrality encourages manufacturers to meet their objectives.
Our national manufacturers and our equipment suppliers are well positioned for this shift. The automobile industry is investing in France like never before in fifty years! All the players are transforming their factories and innovating to meet the challenge.
The challenge now is to rebuild the value chains. Europe has decreed a change of gear without planning a major industrial strategic plan and without measuring the consequences on manufacturing sovereignty. She chose a technology of which our continent does not master all the links. We did not know how to produce batteries in France. Fortunately, the situation is improving. Giga-factories are emerging, lithium extraction projects are appearing, and the refining of precious metals is taking shape. We are gradually rebuilding the links in this new value chain.
What are the consequences of this shift?
There is certainly a phenomenon of “creative destruction” with the appearance of new professions. Last year, 82,000 hiring intentions were recorded. But let’s not kid ourselves: the sector will lose around 65,000 jobs in the coming years. It is therefore a question of anticipating and preparing employees for the professions of tomorrow. The battery school in Hauts-de-France, recently inaugurated, provides 400 hours of training to workers who worked on assembly lines to become operators in giga-factories.
There are also prospects for reconversion in reconditioning, recycling and deconstruction. In our new strategic contract with the State, the regions and social partners, we are devoting an entire section to this sector. Companies exist, but today they are small and scattered. They must be consolidated, which will create many jobs.
For the rest, the car must remain a popular and accessible product, this is the recipe for its success in the past. The manufacturers are there, but the situation is more difficult for the consumer. To reassure him, we must notably increase the number of charging infrastructures. We have observed a clear acceleration in the installation of terminals over the past two years, particularly on motorways. However, the hardest part remains ahead of us: we will have to go from 120,000 refueling points to 400,000 in 2030! The problem is that there is a multitude of stakeholders and operators: highway companies, energy companies, local authorities, specific operators. All of this doesn’t make decisions any easier. Routing power lines, especially for fast charging, also takes time. Finally, we must take into account questions relating to the occupation of the public domain and administrative complexities. These are major challenges to overcome.
An article from the special “Automobile” report of L’Express, published in the weekly on April 18.
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