Russia can now attack by force before the US arms aid package is blocked and Ukrainian forces can re-equip.
11:02•Updated 11:14
Yesterday, the US House of Representatives voted in favor of a new $60 billion aid package for Ukraine. Now the Senate still has to pass the law and the president has to sign it before the new material is sent to Ukraine.
The Senate will vote on the law next week. According to a Pentagon spokesman, the logistics of the US armed forces will receive weapons aid “within days” after the delivery is given the green light by the politicians.
The Institute for the Study of War, a think tank of the US following the war in Ukraine according to the estimate so it may take weeks before fresh arms aid, such as artillery shells that Ukraine desperately needs, starts arriving for the use of front-line Ukrainian forces.
ISW is slightly more pessimistic in its assessment than Information from The Washington Postaccording to which the armed aid could arrive within a week.
According to media reports, artillery shells and missiles for the country’s air defense systems would be the first to be sent to Ukraine.
This means that Russia now has a window to advance its offensive as much as possible before Ukraine gets to equalize the balance of power.
According to ISW’s assessment, it is the ammunition shortage that is currently creating critical weaknesses in Ukraine’s defense line, which could at worst enable operationally significant breakthroughs by the Russian forces.
ISW estimates that Russia will intensify ground attacks and missile and aerial strikes in order to reach the best possible positions before the arrival of armed aid.
Arms aid can change Russia’s summer plans
It is estimated that Russia is planning a new large-scale land attack in June. ISW estimates that Russia planned the summer attack precisely with the Ukrainians’ material shortage in mind.
Even poorly trained or inexperienced assault troops could succeed on the battlefield if the Ukrainian defenders did not have the weapons or ammunition to counter them.
If Ukraine succeeds in utilizing the new material effectively, Russia may have to reevaluate its major offensive.
The support received by Ukraine thus changes the situation, but ISW reminds that even Russia has not yet used all its weapons. According to ISW, Russia can still push its population and economy more towards a war situation, and can also be ready for new unpopular actions, such as business proposals, if necessary.
The story was updated on April 21, 2024 at 11:10 a.m. WaPo’s schedule estimate was added to the story.