Last weekend, Jordan participated alongside the United States, the United Kingdom and France in the interception of Iranian drones and missiles launched against Israel. The kingdom, half of whose population is of Palestinian origin, must juggle between preserving internal stability and maintaining good relations with its Israeli neighbor and its Western allies. Interview with Jalal Al Husseini, political researcher associated with the French Institute of the Middle East (IFPO), in Amman.
RFI: How can we explain Jordan’s commitment from a historical and geopolitical point of view?
Jalal Al Husseini: There Jordan is a country that has always considered itself vulnerable to external pressures and regional wars. This vulnerability is due to conflicts on the scale of the Middle East, but also to the internal context. Particularly since 1948 and the arrival of Palestinian refugees who were naturalized, this has made things even more difficult.
There was this dissension between Jordanians who we can call “natives» and Jordanians of Palestinian origin. This divide is a source of instability and Jordan has always been under Western control or supervision. To understand, the Emirate of Transjordan was created in 1921 by the English, who following the world war would reign over Palestine, Transjordan and Iraq. When English influence in the region began to crumble, the United States took over until the present day.
On the other hand, Jordan, as an Emirate and kingdom, was seen by opponents as a stooge of Western imperialism. And as a result, many enemies will be made, particularly among left-wing movements, hostile to imperialism and American omnipotence in the region. Hence this vulnerability of Jordan, a poor country which has very few natural resources and which has therefore always been militarily and economically dependent on the West. Jordan has sought to form alliances with countries that are on the same side.
This was the case with Hashemite Iraq until 1958, and other countries depending on their political orientation. Egypt was a country considered an enemy under Nasser, relations warmed under Sadat who had come back to the American side. The end goal for the kingdom being to establish good relations and dialogue with everyone, and to mediate as much as possible. It is known that the United States is the leading provider of military aid to Jordan, but the kingdom has established fairly good relations with Russia. It’s about diversifying its relationships and support on an international scale.
A priority for Amman is to also maintain good relations with its Israeli neighbor. The peace agreement, the treaty of Wadi Araba », signed in 1994 made it possible to normalize relations. It guarantees reciprocal respect for sovereignty, equitable sharing of water resources, cooperation regarding Palestinian refugees, tourism, but also and above all the defense of neighbors in the event of a threat. How is this agreement crucial for Jordan?
It is a very important treaty. A dream for Abdallah 1ᵉʳ, the Hashemite king, who from the 1930s-40s wanted to establish relations with Zionists like Golda Meir. According to him, the Zionists were Westerners whose presence would enable economic growth and progress in the region and that the entire Middle East would benefit from it. It was only after four Israeli-Arab conflicts, but especially the Oslo peace accords concluded between the PLO and Israel in 1993, that Jordan decided to seal a peace agreement with Israel considering that it was in its interest and that normalization with its neighbor would be a source of economic development and regional stability. Unfortunately, the failure of the Oslo process between Palestinians and Israelis will also harm relations between Jordan and Israel.
Each conflict between Israel and the Palestinians has provoked strong protests in Jordan. The current war between Israel and Hamas and the situation of Gazans arouse the anger of the population. For several weeks, tens of thousands of people demonstrated in front of the Israeli embassy in Amman. These protests were harshly repressed, there were also numerous arrests. How do you interpret the position of the Jordanian authorities?
Jordan has vigorously protested Israeli attacks in the Gaza Strip, but regarding the protests in the capital, it has set two red lines: do not harm the Israeli embassy and the border between the countries . Jordan plays a balancing act at the regional level but also at the internal level. The country is far from being an oppressive regime like Iraq was. There have indeed been arrests and a tightening of the law in recent years to chase away dissenting voices, but it was in the name of stability.
We must not forget in this context the trauma that Jordan suffered in 1967, during the third Arab-Israeli conflict, when the kingdom lost sovereignty over the West Bank. Jordan has learned this lesson: war can be very damaging to the country, which is why it tries to avoid any conflict with Israel. Any attack on the Israeli embassy in Amman could be interpreted as casus belli.
Jordan’s particularity in the region is its very large Palestinian community which arrived in several successive waves of refugees. What is the situation today ?
Today, there are approximately 11 million people in Jordan. Regarding the Palestinians, there are refugees who were naturalized by the Jordanian government in 1949. The figure is taboo, they represent 42-43% of the population. If we add all the Palestinians who do not have nationality, such as the refugees from Gaza for example who arrived in 1967-68, and the West Bankers who arrived in Jordan during the first, but especially the second Intifada, we arrive at 50%. But if we take Amman, the capital, 70% of the population is of Palestinian origin.
Relations between Jordanians and Palestinians have been quite tense in the past. We have not forgotten Black September, the war between the factions of the PLO and the Jordanian regime. These tensions continue to exist and it is important to manage them by setting limits. A Trans-Jordanian current in the country is particularly hostile to the Palestinian presence. Another problem that the king must manage.
Hamas is persona non grata in the country. Is the organization a source of concern for Jordan?
Of course, this was a major concern that led Amman to close Hamas offices in 1999 because it was seen as a threat. Just like the Muslim brothers present in the country, who were affiliated with or very close to the Hamas. The means deployed by the authorities to discredit them have been partly successful.
In the context of current tensions, where Israel could retaliate for last Saturday’s attack, does Jordan fear threats from Iran, which has warned that any country that collaborates with Tel Aviv could become a target?
Iran is quite cautious and acts through its proxies. The attacks of Saturday April 13 were retaliatory measures against the attack on its consulate in Damascus. Draw, we turn the page and return to normal business. Whether at Gaza or in any other regional conflict, Jordan will call for a return to calm, in the name of stability. This is all it can do, since it is not a major regional player.
Will the position of the Jordanian government in the current situation have an impact on the fragile internal balances? And does it risk exacerbating anti-Israeli sentiment among the population?
Jordan is not a war partner of Israel, the country has protected its sovereignty which was violated by Iran, with the passage of drones and missiles through its airspace. By helping to shoot down the projectiles, it reaffirmed its sovereignty over its space. Furthermore, the country shares its longest border with Israel and absolutely does not want to be sandwiched between Iran and Israel.
Not being a regional power, Jordan will continue to play a humanitarian or mediator role, when asked, and will strive to maintain good relations with everyone in the name of stability. And to preserve its vital interests, it will continue to implement the clauses of the Wadi Araba peace treaty with the Israelis.
Read alsoIranian attack on Israel: Jordan does not want to become a regional war zone