Professor in the Department of Near Eastern Studies at Princeton University, in the United States, Bernard Haykel is one of the best international specialists on the Middle East. For L’Express, the researcher draws lessons from Iran’s unprecedented attack against Israel. According to him, the Iranian regime has mainly sought to achieve symbolic rather than military gains, in order to “present itself as the champion of the Palestinian cause, the Arab world and the ‘global South'”. While showing the Americans that he did not want a generalized conflict… Interview.
L’Express: Iran has, for the first time, directly attacked Israel on its territory, but without causing significant damage. Isn’t this a failure for the Iranian regime?
Bernard Haykel: On the contrary, I think that the game Iran is playing is quite clever. What the Israelis have never really accepted is that this is also a war of symbols and political prestige. The Iranians had largely lost in this area due to their actions in Syria or Iraq, with massacres of Sunni populations. Their domination over Lebanon, through Hezbollah, is also poorly perceived. They had thus lost the “Arab street”, predominantly Sunni. But for Tehran, the Palestinian cause is a way of regaining prestige, and of resisting Israel and the West. The Iranians also want to stop the rapprochement between Israel and Saudi Arabia, which is taking place through the United States.
With this attack, Iran thus positions itself as the only country in the region capable of attacking Israel. Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Turkey or Egypt have not done so. Images of missiles were seen above the al-Aqsa mosque in Jerusalem. These are strong images, which give Iran a certain political momentum. But, at the same time, the Iranians were clever in announcing what they were going to do. They clearly did not want to do much damage to Israel. When the regime really wants to hit a target, it is usually very precise, as we saw in 2019 with the attack on energy centers in Saudi Arabia. I therefore have the impression that the Iranians are playing a more symbolic than military game. They also proceeded on the weekend, knowing that there would be no effect on the oil market. And at the same time, they let the Americans know that they could inflict real damage on energy systems, tankers and ships.
Does this attack mark a turning point in the Middle East?
First, for the first time, Iran attacked Israel directly, without going through “proxies”. This is a break with their tradition. They can no longer say “it’s not us”. Then, it offered Israel and its allies, including Arab countries, an air defense exercise against its missiles and drones, which may prove valuable to Israel. The 99% Israeli success rate against 300 missiles and drones proves that the Iranians probably do not have enough reliable weapons against Israel. Finally, this attack very clearly demonstrated that Hezbollah is not the only militia totally under the orders of the Iranians. By also launching drones, the Houthis confirmed that they were almost part of the Revolutionary Guards.
But, as I said, Iran won symbolic gains. Israel and the United States must realize that this is not just a military war, but that they must also prevent Iran from presenting itself as the champion of the Palestinian cause, the Arab world and the ” Global South.”
“The Iranian regime is not completely suicidal”
In retaliation, could Israel violently attack Hezbollah?
Benjamin Netanyahu, as soon as he is more or less finished with Gaza, will want to focus on Hezbollah. The Iranians say that Israel wants to strike in Lebanon anyway, and lead to a war against Iran which would also involve the United States. But they are signaling to the Americans that they do not want a generalized war, and that they are sticking to symbolism. This message, I believe, was well received by the United States. This is the idea that the Iranian regime can play dirty, but is not completely suicidal. This is not North Korea or Saddam Hussein’s Iraq, it is a country with which we can still deal.
How much will Jordan and Saudi Arabia continue to support Israel?
The Saudis intercepted Houthi missiles, saying they did not accept flights over their territory. Jordan has put forward the same logic of sovereignty. But when we listen to the news in Arabic, it is clear that this logic, even if it is understandable, proves embarrassing in the eyes of Arab public opinion. Because, ultimately, Jordan protected Israel and accepted that a number of Iranian missiles and drones be stopped on its territory, before reaching the Jewish state. Jordanian authorities have said Iranians are becoming radicalized and have asked them to stop meddling in the kingdom’s domestic affairs. Jordan is on the verge of developing overt hostility towards Iran. But we must not forget that the Jordanian population is made up of more than 60% Palestinians, who do not want their government to protect Israel…
Will the United States succeed in restraining Israel from its possible reprisals?
They will let it happen if it is clandestine reprisals, with sabotage or attacks on oil fields. But the Americans will not accept Israel striking Iran directly, that is to say by sending planes to bomb Iranian territory.
However, does the risk of escalation in the Middle East seem significant to you?
For the Israeli people, there is something sacred when their territory is directly attacked. We clearly saw that after October 7, there was a very strong emotional reaction. Today, this may push Israel to respond to this Iranian attack to reestablish its deterrence. But the Israelis can also say that this attack was not very effective, and that with the help of the Americans and even Arab countries, they were able to protect their territory. If Iran had really wanted to seriously strike the Jewish state, it could have triggered all of Hezbollah’s missiles. But Netanyahu is also in the logic of his political survival. That said, Israel must not forget that this conflict is not only military. If the Israelis obtained a victory in Gaza, they suffered a symbolic defeat. Even if they were initially the victims of Hamas, they are now seen, in the eyes of a large part of the world, as the executioners. Conversely, Iran has made us forget its own abuses. Nobody talks about the crimes committed in Syria anymore…
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