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full screen An Israeli F-35 plane over southern Israel last June. Archive image. Photo: Tsafrir Abayov/AP/TT
A retaliation from Israel against Iran could lead to the conflict in the Middle East escalating – and more parties being drawn in.
– Not only Hezbollah, Islamic Jihad, Houthis, but also the head of the octopus: Iran itself, says Anders Ekholm at the University of Defense.
The world is waiting to see how Israel will act after Iran’s attack, when hundreds of drones and robots were sent against Israel from Iranian territory overnight on Sunday.
Anders Ekholm, lieutenant colonel and researcher at the Norwegian Defense Academy, is convinced that Israel will respond. With an operation that can surprise.
– They have a tradition of answering in a way that they have not answered before. It is an unwritten rule in their system, he says.
Ekholm believes that Israel feels compelled to respond to Iran’s attack for two reasons.
– Firstly, you have to show your population that you don’t stand passively in the face of things like this, but that you have to act. Second, it is about deterrence. If you don’t do something decisive now, Iran may perceive it as “This worked, after all. What will be the next step? What will they do next time?”.
Overplays the Gaza conflict
Ekholm is familiar with the rhetoric and strategy Israel’s military (IDF) usually uses. He does not rule out that several of the countries that were involved in the attack – which, in addition to Iran, should have come from Yemen, Lebanon and Iraq – could be drawn into an escalating conflict.
The whole thing could spill over into developments in the Gaza Strip, Ekholm believes. For the Hamas movement, it can be an advantage if a heavy player like Iran puts direct pressure on Israel.
In such a situation, the Hamas leadership probably does not see the same value in concluding an agreement and achieving a ceasefire with Israel, says Anders Ekholm.
Iran’s nuclear weapons a target
He refers to the Hamas terrorist attack against Israel last fall.
– I think this may have been the picture they (Hamas) were hoping for on October 7. That they would bring the region with them, and set fire to it properly. Get the other buddies along in this axis of resistance. Not only Hezbollah, Islamic Jihad, Houthis, but also the head of the octopus: Iran itself.
According to Ekholm, Israel’s supposed response need not only be retaliation against Iran. It can also be used as an excuse to go ahead and try to destroy, or at least forcefully affect, Iran’s nuclear weapons program.
– Israel has been talking about this for a long time and probably really thinks that the outside world, the Western world, doesn’t really understand how dangerous what Iran is doing is. In any case, what can be deduced from the rhetoric and my contacts within the IDF, he says.