Markku Kanerva has been piloting the Finnish men’s national football team since 2017. Huuhkajat has played 56 competitive matches under his head coach, including the 2021 European Championship, World Cup and European Championship qualifiers and Nations League matches.
Out of these 56 matches, Huuhkaji has 28 wins, 6 draws and 22 losses. The team has scored 69 and conceded 56 goals, was in the prestigious competition for the first time and raised expectations for themselves.
– The big picture is that Markku Kanerva raised the national team to a new level Hans Backen and Mixu Paatelainen after ages. It can be seen in practically all metrics, Urheilu’s football expert Miika Nuutinen says.
But what is hidden behind the improved results of the national team and how have the results, above all, developed during Kanerva’s seven-year head coaching tenure?
Kanerva’s status has been a topic of conversation since Huuhkajat lost last Thursday in the further qualification of the Nations League to Wales with goals 1-4. Since the competition ticket to next summer’s European Championships in Germany escaped, many have been ready to find a new head coach to replace Kanerva.
Kanerva’s contract lasts until the end of the current year. At the end of the year, the national team plays in the B-level group of the Nations League, where the other countries are England, Ireland and Greece.
A ranking in the top two would open up a reserve seam to qualify for a place in the 2026 World Cup, if the team does not claim a race ticket from the old-style qualifiers.
But is a change of head coach relevant right now? Is Huuhkajat a high-quality enough team that we can expect them to place in prestigious competitions time and time again?
According to the news, a lot has to happen in order for Huuhkajat to become a regular visitor to the prestigious competitions – whether Kanerva or someone else is in charge of coaching.
The player material is not enough
– The fact that Huuhkajat is competing for a place in the competition always requires overperformance compared to the player material. The team has two players who play in Europe’s top 5 leagues. It’s a pretty harsh situation, says Nuutinen.
The two Finns playing in Europe’s toughest leagues can be found in the German Bundesliga. Keeper Lukas Hradecky represents the absolute top of his playing field and is captaining Bayer Leverkusen to the first German championship in his club history. Midfielder Fredrik Jensen plays in the Bundesliga for FC Augsburg.
The player material of Norway and Sweden, who were also eliminated from the European Championship, is completely different from Huuhkaj’s. In last week’s friendly matches, both neighboring countries had nine players from the top 5 European leagues (England, Spain, Italy, Germany and France) in their starting line-up.
There were three players on the Swedish bench alone who play professionally in the Spanish, French and English leagues.
– Norway has two top 10 players in the world (Manchester City Erling Haaland and Arsenal Martin Ödegaard). Swedish players practically all play in Europe’s big leagues, and they have one of the hottest strikers in Europe at the top, Nuutinen refers to the one who scored 22 goals for Sporting Lisbon in the Portuguese league To Viktor Gyökeres.
– Huhkaji’s results in recent years have set the bar high. It might blur this realism a bit.
Against the odds
In addition to the player material, you can also look for realism in Huuhkajie’s statistics, one of which is goalscoring.
The expected goal tells you the probability that the shot will hit the goal on a scale of 0–1. The higher the reading, the more likely the goal celebration will be seen. Goal expectation can predict success in the long run, because often the team that created better chances wins more. You can read more about the subject at this link.
According to statistics service Bolla, out of the 28 wins achieved by Huuhkaji under Kanerva, seven have come by waiting for a goal, which has been worse than the opponent in the match. Three of Huhkaji’s 22 defeats have come with a better goal expectation than the opponent. In four of the six ties, the opponent has been better than Huuhkaji, if expected goals are used as a measure.
When the Huuhkajat advanced to the 2021 European Championship, the team’s goal score was better than the opponent in each of the six qualifying matches that ended in victory.
In the European Championships, Huuhkajat had one shot on goal in each of their three matches. One of them was enough for a victory over Denmark, although the Jutes won the attempts to score 23–1 and the shots on goal 6–1.
Hradecky refused Christian Eriksen in a match overshadowed by a cardiac arrest, also a penalty kick. Denmark’s goal expectation was 2.34 and Finland’s 0.39.
Since 2019, Huuhkajat has played nine matches against so-called A-category countries. In them, Finland has lost goal attempts 56–151, shots on goal 8–54, and expected goals 0.64–1.83.
– Finland has not risen to a level where it could compete against the top European countries. The results during Markku Kanerva’s time have been based on the fact that the team has been able to beat weaker and similar countries with a good enough percentage and turn even matches to their advantage, says Nuutinen.
If the review is limited to countries that play and have played with Finland at the B level of the Nations League, Huuhkajat has played 19 matches since 2020. In these, it has scored 25 and conceded 24 goals, although its expected goals are 1.32 and the opponents’ 1.63. In order to achieve long-term success, Huuhkaji must be able to turn expectations to their advantage.
– This is what Kanerva and its teams have been striving for with game changes after the European Championships, but a fully functional template has not been found in these qualifiers. Numerous changes to the game system and lineup during the qualifiers will make up for it. Statistically, however, no sharp downturn can be seen when looking at Kanerva’s era, says Nuutinen.
Nuutinen emphasizes that there is a place for a critical discussion about Huuhkajie’s way of playing and Kanerva’s position, but the discussion should be conducted through realities.
– The game tells everything in the end. This time Huuhkajat did not manage to overperform in such a way that it would have gone to the Games. There have been clear weaknesses in the team’s play. The dismal special situation balance in particular needs to improve. The discussion is going on in heavy circles also because Huuhkajat already got good positions in the qualifying group, but was weak in the decisive moments.
– However, I say that in the current player situation, Finland’s competition venue cannot be considered a standard. The fact that Finland will play in prestigious competitions in the future requires super success and getting a competitive advantage from the team’s collective action, says Nuutinen.