At the beginning of March, surprising news was heard from Washington: the Deputy Secretary of State responsible for political affairs, who is one of the key figures in the US policy on Ukraine Victoria Nuland to leave the Ministry of Foreign Affairs.
Nuland is known for his hawkish attitude towards Russia. He has played a central role in the United States’ efforts to support Ukraine and oppose Russian aggression in the region since at least 2013.
The video below shows how Nuland met pro-Western protesters in Kiev in December 2013.
asked two former American diplomats to assess how Nuland’s departure from the Ministry of Foreign Affairs will affect Western countries’ Ukraine policy.
The issue was evaluated by a researcher from the think tank Rand William Courtney and director of the Atlantic Council’s Eurasia Center, a think tank John Herbst. Both of them know Nuland personally, and Herbst served as the US ambassador to Ukraine in the mid-2000s.
Nuland advocated a stricter line
Among the officials of the US administration, Nuland has probably played the most significant role in shaping the country’s Russia and Ukraine policy, William Courtney estimates.
According to him, Nuland has been a key player in, among other things, putting together a coalition supporting Ukraine.
– I hope his successor will be able to continue this. Toria [Victoria Nuland] has probably done his job as well as a career diplomat can. He is a superstar of diplomacy, Courtney praises.
Nuland understood better than many others how dangerous the Kremlin’s foreign policy is, says John Herbst. He believes that if Nuland had had even more influence, the US policy towards a war of aggression against Russia would have been better than it is today.
The sanctions imposed on Russia, the international isolation of Russia, the arming of Ukraine and the strengthening of NATO in the East have been exactly the right kind of policy, says Herbst.
But the hawkish Nuland pushed the line that the United States should have given Ukraine much more and more sophisticated weapons.
– If we had acted this way, there would be a good chance that Russia’s position on the battlefield would be significantly worse than it is now. Then Putin would presumably have found a reason to end his war of aggression, Herbst estimates.
Researchers believe that, despite Nuland’s departure, the United States’ Ukraine policy will continue along its current lines for the time being.
The assessment is supported by the fact that the majority of both Republicans and Democrats support the current line.
Changes can be made in the future Donald Trump’s possible election victory and return to the presidency of the United States.
According to Herbst, the decisive factor is what kind of advisers Trump’s possible new government will have. If the advisers were of the same type as in Trump’s first presidential term, the change in Ukraine policy would not necessarily be very big.
Instead, it would become a problem if different types of characters became Trump’s advisers, Herbst estimates.
The importance of Europe is increasing
However, the role of European countries is constantly growing in shaping the Western alliance’s Ukraine policy, says researcher William Courtney.
According to him, the most recent example of this is when the French president Emmanuel Macron raised the possibility of sending Western troops on support missions to Ukraine.
Courtney stresses that possible Western forces would not work in combat roles, but would provide, for example, technical and intelligence support and help the Ukrainians maintain the most complex weapon systems.
Germany, on the other hand, has promised to increase its defense spending by one hundred billion euros. Again, the British were the first to send tanks to Ukraine, Courtney lists.
John Herbst reminds that Denmark and the Czech Republic have been active in arming Ukraine.
– This is not a matter where one country leads and others follow. There are several managers. Macron is guaranteed to be one of them. Finland and Sweden have also become leaders when they abandoned their old policies and joined NATO, Courtney characterizes.
He sees shared leadership as a good thing because the initiatives of individual members of the coalition help to maintain support for Ukraine in the longer term.
The difference attracted attention in the East
Herbst and Courtney say they don’t know why Nuland decided to step down now.
Instead, the Russians and the Chinese have presented their own views on Nuland’s departure.
Spokesman of the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs Maria Zakharova commented that Nuland’s departure is due to “Biden’s about the failure of the administration’s anti-Russian policy”.
Courtney counters Zaharova’s comment by saying that claims coming from Russian propagandists should be viewed as untrue.
According to the AP news agency, Nuland had worked as the foreign minister’s closest assistant before his resignation [eli sijaisulkoministerinä]. Nuland was also nominated for this position permanently, but lost the internal personnel competition of the administration To Kurt Campbell.
A newspaper about world politics committed to the Chinese Communist Party Global Times wrote that the elevation of “China expert” Campbell to deputy secretary of state reflects the Biden administration’s shift in focus to the Asia-Pacific region.
William Courtney also shoots down the Chinese analysis. He states that although Campbell brings valuable expertise from the Far East to the State Department, this is not a sign that the United States is balancing its policy towards the Indo-Pacific maritime region amid the wars in Ukraine and Gaza.
– The West’s attention is still strongly in Europe and the Middle East, says Courtney.
Nuland transfers to university
After leaving the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Victoria Nuland is not going to spend her retirement days.
He is moving to Columbia University as a working life professor. The professorship in question is considered particularly influential, says Courtney.
– He continues to play a significant role, through which he helps to shape the conversation about US foreign policy, says Courtney.