“A political thunderbolt”: this is how communist elected official Fabien Gay described the rejection in the Senate, Thursday March 21, of the ratification of the Ceta free trade treaty between the European Union and Canada, 211 votes against 44. In a climate of extreme tension in the middle of a rural crisis, a convenient alliance between the left and the republican right made it possible, during the communist parliamentary “niche”, to reject this agreement, much criticized by part of the agricultural world. Ceta, which eliminates most customs duties between the EU and Canada, is particularly criticized by cattle breeders, who denounce competition that they consider unfair. Provisionally applied since 2017 at the European level, it has never been submitted to senators since then.
“We are saying stop the unfair competition that we are subjecting to European producers by imposing ever more draconian standards,” thundered farmer senator LR Laurent Duplomb. For its part, the left was united in opposition, with the socialist group notably singling out an agreement “in total contradiction with our environmental commitments”, according to its senator Didier Marie. A few months before the European elections, this rejection of one of the main free trade agreements appears to be a major setback for the executive. What are the concrete implications?
An upcoming visit to the Assembly?
This rejection by the Senate, however, is not enough in itself to denounce the agreement on a European scale. It also does not put an end to the Ceta ratification procedure in France. For this to happen, the National Assembly would already have to decide on the free trade agreement – which is what the oppositions intend to do. Following their fellow senators, the communist deputies have in fact announced their intention to include the text in their reserved parliamentary time – their “niche” – scheduled for May 30 in the Assembly, ten days before the European elections.
But there is no guarantee that the executive will transmit the text to the National Assembly early enough for the communists to be able to include it on the agenda. “The text will be transmitted, but when the time comes […] when we are out of the electoral politician era”, slipped a ministerial advisor Thursday evening. While in 2019 the deputies had narrowly approved the ratification of Ceta, the presidential camp has since lost the absolute majority at the Palais Bourbon, which makes him fear another rejection.
What are the consequences for Europe?
If a national Parliament rejects the treaty, this could call into question its provisional application across Europe. At least in theory. Because this would require the French government to notify the decision of its Parliament to Brussels, which it is not required to do. This is the case, for example, of the Cypriot government, which never notified this rejection, which allows the agreement to continue to apply. Currently, ten other member states have also not completed the ratification process.
But it could be a double-edged decision for the French government, in the event of refusal to inform the European body of this decision. This gesture would give room for criticism from the oppositions, who could denounce a democratic denial. For now, the executive still hopes to be able to convince during future debates in the National Assembly. The debate “is not closed”, announced the Ministry of Relations with Parliament, indicating that the government would provide “in the coming weeks” the “necessary clarification” to “continue parliamentary discussions”.
The executive intends to defend the benefits of the free trade treaty and could rely on the figures for exports to Canada, up 33% between 2017 and 2023, to 4.2 billion euros (compared to 35% of increase in imports), and on the trade surplus of the French agricultural and agri-food sectors, multiplied by three over this period. The wine and dairy sectors, which export to North America, are notably cited among the big winners from Ceta.