Mentally intoxicated by the lobbying of ecological collapse NGOs and by the nagging refrains of red-green extremists, we have internalized the fact that, in the environmental field, only bad news can come. Roughly speaking, we should spend our lives redoubled efforts, knowing that it is useless since the apocalypse is at the end of the road, punishment for our capitalist sins. However, recent data suggests that Western countries are rapidly decarbonizing, and that the cost of the ecological transition could be lower than expected. The good news is multiplying but we no longer even dare to look at it.
The International Energy Agency (IEA) published its report on CO2 emissions in 2023 a few days ago. Globally, these emissions increased by 1.1% last year. This figure is double-edged. Certainly, it marks a new emissions record. But the annual increases are increasingly weak and suggest an imminent start of decline. To achieve the objectives of the Paris agreement, these emissions will then have to decrease very quickly before reaching neutrality in 2050. We are still very far from it but the geographical distribution of these is interesting and brings hope.
The UK at the forefront
In rich countries, emissions have returned to their level of the 1970s. The use of coal, the most emitting fuel, has returned to its level of the 1900s. The European Union now emits less carbon per capita than China, without this dynamic being offset by an increase in CO2 “imports”: our industry is decarbonizing particularly quickly. This improvement in energy efficiency also concerns the United States. The United Kingdom obtains the most spectacular results. According to Carbon Brief, a British information site dedicated to global warming, the country’s carbon emissions are at their lowest since the 19th century thanks to the substitution of nuclear energy for coal. By maintaining the pace of recent decades, and therefore without accelerating efforts, the United Kingdom will achieve carbon neutrality in 2050. It is therefore possible.
The IEA explains that decline has nothing to do with these good results. In the United States, Canada, Japan, most European countries and Israel, CO2 emissions are falling, taking into account the emissions contained in imports, while GDP increases. The degrowth advocates are therefore completely wrong. On the contrary, it is the “technological solutionism”, so caricatured and decried, which has enabled this improvement.
The Agency cites the key role of four technologies: nuclear power, renewable energy – wind and photovoltaic -, heat pumps and electric cars. If global emissions are not yet falling, it is because of the burning of coal in China and the fall in hydroelectric production in India, linked to the monsoons. China nevertheless plans to reduce its emissions in 2030, which will undoubtedly be sooner.
Falling prices
Can we imagine going faster than expected? Yes, according to the figures provided again by the IEA. Take the example of photovoltaics. The report explains that achieving carbon neutrality will require us to install 650 gigawatts of solar power each year starting in 2030. We will, in fact, be there in 2025. The reason? An ultra-rapid drop in the cost of this energy. The price of a watt produced by a photovoltaic panel has fallen by 99.6% since 1976, and the decline continues.
Another good news? The moderation of lithium prices is driving down the price of electric batteries. According to Goldman Sachs, the average cost of batteries will fall below $100 per kilowatt next year. In Norway, more than 80% of cars sold today are electric. It is possible that the ecological transition will cost less than expected. Terrific news for humanity, a catastrophe for green revolutionaries.
* Nicolas Bouzou, economist and essayist, is director of the consulting firm Asterès.
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