Antti Pihlajamaa, a research officer at the National Defense University, reminds that the information about Kiev’s motives is mostly based on social media updates. There is no definite information.
The expert is stunned by public statements about the widespread motto of the Russian forces by the Ukrainians. Fighting has continued fiercely on the west side of Kiev, and Ukrainian troops are said to be trying to besiege Russian troops.
Research officer Antti Pihlajamaa The National Defense College says that the much-received question about possible motivation is based on uncertain information that is quite largely individual social media updates or the like.
There are no confirmed data on a possible significant increase in risk.
– If there had been some real bigger siege there, it would probably have come out more spectacularly, and there would be more information about it. At least a large-scale moth cannot be strengthened at the moment, Pihlajamaa says.
According to Pihlajamaa, it would be more likely that Ukraine has carried out counter-attacks on the west side of Kiev and that it has been able to disrupt Russian service connections. It would therefore be more of a local blockade.
According to Pihlajamaa, it is clear that if thousands of Russians were to be wanted, a significant number of Ukrainians should be able to separate such an operation from the fighting in the west of Kiev.
The Ukrainians should be grouped in a coordinated manner in different directions at the same time so that the Russians cannot escape the path of the mother. At the same time, the Russians would try in every way to disrupt the efforts of the Ukrainians.
– I would say that a rather challenging operation on such a larger scale would be carried out.
Loss figures alone do not tell the whole situation
News agency AP has released estimates from NATO that 7,000-15,000 Russian soldiers would have died after Russia invaded Ukraine a month ago.
In total, Russia’s loss figures range from 30,000 to 40,000 in NATO estimates. Wounded and imprisoned Russians, among others, have been included.
Russia itself has not reported anything on its loss figures since the beginning of March, when it reported remarkably small amounts.
Research officer Pihlajamaa points out that even in western estimates the range is relatively large, so the figures should be treated with caution.
– We also do not know exactly what the total strength of the Russians was at the beginning of the (war). Even in that estimate, there were considerable variations in tens of thousands of soldiers, as the figure is likely to range between 150,000 and 200,000.
The figures alone do not tell us how the losses have been. Some parts of the troops may have been badly destroyed, while others may have survived almost without loss.
– If there are whole fresh troops that could still be used somewhere, it could be an advantage for Russia compared to the situation that the best blade of all the troops would be bored there, says research officer Antti Pihlajamaa.