President of Russia Vladimir Putin has decided on another major attack on Ukraine, and Ukraine is now desperately trying to prevent it from happening with attacks on oil refineries.
This is the opinion of the Turku University of Economics professor and Russia researcher Kari Liuhto. He has followed Russia in his work for more than 30 years.
Liuhto’s view is that Putin will start his major offensive by the end of the summer.
According to him, a new attack is certain because the position of the fraudulently elected president is currently unstable. Putin believes that continuing the war will get support from the people.
– Unfortunately, a major attack is coming. The operation has already started. The only thing that can prevent the success of the operation is that Ukraine now receives artillery ammunition from the West quickly enough, says Liuhto.
Western arms aid to Ukraine has stalled. Among other things, the EU countries have referred to the costs caused by the war.
In the professor’s opinion, Europe does not fully understand what a successful Russian attack would mean for Europe and the existence of Ukraine.
– If Russia succeeds in occupying Ukraine, probably thousands of pro-Western people will simply be executed. In addition, the exodus of millions of Western Ukrainians to Europe begins.
– This will be really expensive for Europe, the professor states.
The professor also reminds that Putin is not satisfied with the occupied territories of eastern Ukraine. After Ukraine, Moldova’s Transnistria and Gagauzia will probably be next.
Ukraine is playing for time
At the beginning of the year, Ukraine has struck with its unmanned drones widely in different parts of Russia.
For example, a network of investigative journalists The Insider has calculated that Ukraine has carried out at least 15 drone attacks on 13 fuel refineries this year.
According to The Insider, the oil refining capacity of the facilities targeted by the attacks is at least 178 million tons of oil per year.
Ukrainian media claims by eight of the affected refineries have been damaged so significantly that their operations have stopped. They process a total of 83 million tons of oil per year.
According to The Insider’s information, drone strikes have so far reduced Russia’s oil refining capacity by approximately 46 million tons per year.
According to Liuhto, Ukraine’s attacks on oil refineries are part of a strategy by which Ukraine tries to buy time for itself in order to receive arms aid.
Attacks by Ukrainian drones against Russian refineries have become more and more systematic, and attacks have been made especially on refineries that process diesel.
For example, on Saturday, Ukraine attacked three Rosneft oil refineries in the Samara region, Ukrainian media told.
Ukraine has also carried out drone attacks on refineries far from the border region.
Ukraine is for example made a hit To the Kiriš oil refinery in western Russia, which is located 800 kilometers from Ukraine.
According to Liuhto, it is remarkable that the Ukrainians have not attacked Primorsk and Novorossiysk, located in southern Russia, even though these are Russia’s largest crude oil export ports.
The expert estimates that small oil refineries are more important for Ukraine than large crude oil ports, because Russian tanks and airplanes run on diesel fuel and kerosene.
Ukraine’s goal is, in the simplest terms, to prevent the movement of Russian military equipment, the professor explains.
Liuhto estimates that Ukraine’s attacks on refineries can delay Russia’s major attack by a few weeks.
“Putin has decided that the plans will be implemented”
Independent online magazine in Russian The Moscow Times estimated on Monday that about 13 percent of the total capacity of Russia’s oil refining units is on emergency shutdown, as well as nine percent of refineries producing gasoline and diesel fuel.
Ukraine’s drone attacks would not have succeeded to a significant extent in preventing Russian oil refining.
For example, after the attack on the Laukaansuu gas terminal, the plant was restored to operational condition in two weeks.
There are 30 large oil refineries and 80 small refineries in Russia, but only some of them are located in the western parts of Russia.
For example, the Omsk oil refinery, one of the most important in Russia, is located in Western Siberia, which is beyond the reach of Ukrainian drones, at least for now.
Even if Ukraine manages to damage all of Russia’s oil refineries located in Europe, according to Liuhto, it would not prevent a possible new attack by Russia.
– Putin has decided that the plans will be implemented regardless of the financial price.
According to the expert, it is clear that Russia would rather reduce its own export income from the export of oil products than choose not to carry out a major attack.
– The strikes in Ukraine have crippled more than a tenth of Russia’s fuel production, about a tenth of its oil and loading capacity, and a fifth of oil product exports. This suggests that Putin reserves oil for his own army, says the professor.
In addition, Liuhto predicts that as the attacks in Ukraine continue, Belarus will begin to increase the export of petroleum products to Russia.
Also listen to: