The director of the Alexander Institute, Markku Kangaspuro, states that the presidential elections in Russia are a performance to declare Putin’s leadership.
On Sunday, Russia was waiting for the president with what kind of majority of votes Vladimir Putin are elected for their next six-year term.
Although there is no doubt about the result of the election, asked a researcher following Russia for his work, what significance Putin’s re-election has for Russia and foreign countries.
The questions were answered by the director of the Alexander Institute of the University of Helsinki Markku Kangaspuro.
What is the significance of this election for the development of Russia?
– It doesn’t really bring anything new. The elections are a performance, with which Putin’s leadership is continued and announced to the people. Of course, we cannot talk about elections in the normal sense.
There is no doubt about the winner of the election, but is there anything else interesting about the election result?
– If we could rely on the published voter turnout and what Putin’s support is, then of course it would be interesting. Whether Russians even consider it necessary to participate in this drama by voting. But since we can doubt all the results announced by the election service, it is very difficult to draw any real conclusions from these elections.
Will there be changes in Russia’s leadership after the elections?
– It is assumed that new faces must be raised. Putin’s own peers are not necessarily healthy enough either. Even younger technocrats have already been promoted to important positions. Younger blood is needed, but it does not necessarily affect the direction of politics in any way.
– Well-known names are interesting, whether they will continue Dmitry Medvedev as vice-president of the security council and for how long as foreign minister Sergei Lavrov able to continue.
Is Russia moving more clearly towards a single state and a one-party system?
– It is a good question to what extent “opposition parties” loyal to the Kremlin are needed anymore. Although, on the other hand, it is quite secondary in the opinion of the Russians themselves, which is reflected in the marginal support of these parties.
– Putin’s problem is starting to be that the circles that hold power no longer really have a chance to withdraw from power. At least not in a way that they could trust that even their personal safety would be guaranteed.
– Russia’s problems and internal dissatisfaction will not disappear anywhere. That is why Putin and his inner circle have to resort to suppressing dissent, criticism and even cautious reforms even harder. It produces a kind of dead end and you have to wonder when the pressure in the bottle increases so much that the cap pops.
– The question is how much longer Putin will be able to buy the consent to his control with the current measures, such as money and maintaining a certain standard of living of the citizens. And to what extent he has to move even more to the use of violence and power politics.
Do we have any prospect of the end of Putin’s reign?
– There is always a possibility that Russia would drift into a multi-level crisis, which would also mean a crisis of administration and politics. Then a situation may arise where Putin is ousted. In the former Soviet republics, changes of power have often taken place through the regrouping of the elite, where part of the opposition has been able to be included in the new power group. I don’t rule out such options, even though no such movement is currently known.
Will the strengthening of Putin’s new term be reflected in the war in Ukraine?
– On the Russian side, there will be no change regarding the war. Perhaps a more important point is how the outside world views Putin’s continuation. If the demands of the opposition that fled Russia were followed, Putin’s presidency would not be recognized. Then it would be extremely difficult to think that in any solution to the war in Ukraine, it would be possible to negotiate any agreement with Russia anymore.
– Even the vestiges of Putin’s legitimacy have disappeared in the West. The big question is how the West will react to his re-election. He will hardly receive congratulations, but it would be quite a big step if the election results were disputed in Western countries. However, I do not assume that this would have much of an effect on the global south that has cooperated with Russia or the world outside the West.
How do you see the significance of these elections for Finland?
– Sometimes we have thought about whether Russia is predictable or unpredictable. Regarding this election result, it is at least quite predictable. We have learned quite a bit to read Putin’s politics.