China, the United States and Russia have something in common that the planet could do without. Beijing, Washington and Moscow are responsible for two-thirds of methane emissions, according to an analysis published this Wednesday March 13 by the International Energy Agency (IEA). Global methane emissions from the fossil fuel industry, mainly due to leaks of this powerful greenhouse gas, remained at record levels in 2023, “for no reason” since the solutions exist and are affordable, according to the IEA.
Energy production linked to oil, gas and coal “resulted in around 120 million tonnes of methane emissions in 2023, a slight increase compared to 2022”, estimates the IEA in this 2024 edition of its “Global Methane Tracker”. However, the IEA predicts a reduction very soon given the changes initiated in the sector and the commitments made at COP28. “Another ten million tonnes” come “from bioenergy”, such as wood burned for cooking stoves, indicates the IEA.
Around two thirds of the methane emitted by the fossil industry “comes from only ten countries”, underlined Christophe McGlade, energy expert at the IEA. China is “by far” the leading emitter for methane from coal, the United States is in the lead for that linked to oil and gas, “followed closely by Russia”.
Emissions close to the 2019 record
Methane, the second most important greenhouse gas after CO2, is the natural gas molecule, which escapes from gas pipelines, coal mines and our gas cookers, but also from cows, rice fields and waste. Around 580 million tonnes of methane are emitted each year, 60% of which is attributable to human activity (mainly agriculture) and almost a third to natural wetlands.
Much warmer than CO2 but with a shorter lifespan (around ten years), it is responsible for around 30% of global warming since the industrial revolution. Avoiding emissions has a strong short-term effect in the fight against global warming. These methane emissions from the fossil industry remain close to the 2019 record and very far from the 75% reduction necessary by 2030 to meet the limit of 1.5°C of warming set by the Paris agreement.
“There is no reason for these emissions to remain this high,” denounced Tim Gould, the chief economist of the IEA, during a press briefing. In 2023, “around 40% could have been avoided without net cost, the value of the methane captured” and marketed being greater than the expenses to plug the leaks, explains the IEA. Reducing by 75% would cost “around $170 billion, or less than 5% of the fossil fuel industry’s revenues in 2023,” adds the Agency.
A massive leak in Kazakhstan
Among the “worrying trends”, Christophe McGlade cites the large leaks “detected by satellite” which “have increased by more than 50% compared to 2022”, representing 5 million additional tonnes. One of them, massive, occurred in Kazakhstan at the beginning of June 2023, followed by a fire in an oil and gas field, caused a leak that remained active for more than 200 hundred days. It is considered one of the most important in history.
As indicated The worldthe authors of the IEA report specify that this increase is explained by a greater number of major leaks, and not by an improvement in detection.
Despite everything, the IEA remains optimistic: “The important policies and regulations announced in recent months, as well as the new commitments made at the COP28 climate summit in Dubai, may soon cause their decline,” writes the institution, which has become a key player in the energy transition.
A turning point in 2024?
At COP28, 52 oil and gas companies committed to achieving “near zero methane” in their operations by 2030, under the eye of skeptical observers due to a lack of precise plans. More than 150 countries, including recently Azerbaijan, host of COP29, have also joined the “Global Methane Pledge” initiative, which aims to reduce these emissions by 30% between 2020 and 2030. “If all these promises are perfectly fulfilled and in time, they would reduce emissions by around 50% by 2030”, according to Christophe McGlade. Except that these new commitments “have not yet been supported by detailed plans”, according to the analyst.
“2024 could mark a turning point,” summarizes economist Tim Gould, because “policies start to be put in place, greater transparency sets in, awareness becomes widespread and we have a better ability to spot leaks important” to stop them.
The IEA, whose estimates exceed those of the United Nations by 50%, is also pleased to be able to count on “an increasing number of advanced satellites monitoring methane leaks, such as MethaneSAT”, successfully launched on March 5 by a SpaceX rocket and controlled from New Zealand.