After the “total lethargy” between Paris and Rabat, Hamza Haroui did not expect the thaw to be so rapid. The subjects that irritate both sides of the Mediterranean are known, and numerous: Western Sahara, listening to Pegasus, visa affair, rapprochement with Algeria… But those which unite are even more so, assures the co-founder of the cabinet of influence MGH Partners. In October 2023, he undertook a reconciliation operation between France and Morocco at the Arab World Institute. Six round tables organized under his leadership, in coordination with the Élysée and the Quai d’Orsay, brought together historians, diplomats and business leaders. No less was needed to grasp the “dense and complex relationships” between the two States, as the presented the event. A conference deemed “remarkable” by Jack Lang, the president of the Institute. Six months later, Hamza Hraoui relishes the recent signals of rapprochement. “Strategic dialogue is necessary,” he says. And in the search for a common agenda, he is convinced that “energy will be an axis of recovery”.
The issue is constantly mentioned during the after-sales service of the latest exchanges between representatives of the two countries. The reciprocal interests are obvious: the chaotic geopolitical context – war in Ukraine, Gaza, previously the Covid-19 pandemic – has caused an electric shock in Europe and France, pushed to accelerate their energy transition. On the other side of the Mediterranean, “Morocco, due to a lack of fossil resources, is seeking to position itself as a reliable partner in alternative and renewable energies”, analyzes Brahim Oumansour, associate researcher and director of the Maghreb Observatory at the Institute of International and Strategic Relations (Iris). The country is gaining momentum in solar power, a sector in which it has one of the best potentials in the world, and in wind power. According to the government’s latest projections, it would even reach, before 2030, its target of 52% of the electricity mix coming from renewables.
“Friendly and close country”
Thanks to this source of clean energy, Morocco dreams of carving out a significant share of the green hydrogen market. Ambition is pushed even in the speeches of King Mohammed VI. A study by Deloitte published last summer confirms the immense reservoir of the region: North Africa could export, by 2050, up to 110 billion dollars per year, or twice as much as North America. Within the Moroccan sector, initiatives are multiplying. Rich in sun and wind, the Guelmim Oued Noun region, located in the north of Western Sahara, has already announced the creation of the “GON H2 Valley”, dedicated to the development of the value chain of green hydrogen and its derivatives. . Several industrial and state players are positioning themselves, like the United Kingdom with Xlinks, this crazy project of underwater electrical interconnections between the Moroccan region and the British county of Devon – a recognized infrastructure 3,800 kilometers long. of national importance” by London.
“For Morocco, it is a gigantic opportunity to become independent for its energy,” said Pierre-Etienne Franc, general director of Hy24. And the European continent is a natural outlet. Paris must seize this opportunity, considers the boss of the investment company, since “France will not be able to make competitive hydrogen for all its uses solely with electrons from nuclear power. It will be necessary to look for some in friendly countries, close and with competitive resources.” The list – outside Europe – is quickly drawn up: Morocco comes first. “It has the best combination of renewable potential, political stability, geographic proximity and industrial fabric. It is the natural partner that France should seek out. It is in the interest of these two countries to talk to each other and move forward on these subjects because they will both benefit, economically and diplomatically,” summarizes Pierre-Etienne Franc.
The diplomatic weight of phosphates
Green hydrogen can also be used locally in the production of agricultural fertilizers. Rabat, here again, has significant assets. Its soil contains 70% of the world’s phosphate reserves, nearly 50 billion tonnes, according to the American Institute of Geophysics. This compound, increasingly used in the manufacture of electric batteries, has long been used for the production of potash fertilizers necessary for fertilizing crops. However, France is very dependent on them and imports almost all of them from North African countries. France, “an agricultural colossus with feet of clay in the absence of control of certain strategic inputs”, described a Senate report in 2022. Food insecurity caused in particular by the Russian invasion, the country led by Putin also being a major producer of fertilizer, has forced a rethink of supplies… Which plays into the hands of Morocco, very aware of the diplomatic weight of its phosphates. And especially from the Cherifian Phosphate Office (OCP), the public company holding the exploitation monopoly, which reaped record profits in 2021 and 2022. “France could benefit from the stability of these resources”, even if they are not inexhaustible, confirms Brahim Oumansour.
The kingdom’s wealth in phosphate rock also brought back an old idea last summer: the production of uranium. In a note, THE Middle East Institute, an American think tank, assures that Morocco has “around 6.9 million tonnes of uranium, the largest quantity available in the world”. Rabat, for the moment, has not taken any steps in this direction… But is nonetheless investing in the nuclear field, which is achieving a comeback at the World level. Morocco is considering the development, with the Russians of Rosatom, of units of nuclear desalination to combat the water shortage affecting the country. Could it also soon use the atom to produce energy? This is a path opened by Rafael Grossi, the director general of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), during the last International Civil Nuclear Exhibition in Paris. “Morocco, Egypt and even Saudi Arabia are thinking about it,” confirms Hamza Hraoui, of MGH Partners. Enough to whet the appetite of French players in the sector. “France, with its know-how, could develop important partnerships,” says the director of the Maghreb Observatory. Competition would be fierce because other powers, like Moscow, are already in the running.
“Morocco is a gateway to Africa, a continent in turmoil and courted by several countries. France has every interest in strengthening its ties with it,” continues Brahim Oumansour. Recent signs of rapprochement prove that “Paris has understood that Morocco is a regional power that counts”, approves Hamza Hraoui. The country has become a place of relocation of European and French industry. It is also strategic in terms of energy transition and food security. French Minister of the Economy Bruno Le Maire should, barring any surprises, travel to the kingdom at the end of April for high-level economic meetings. The objective: to strengthen cooperation between the two countries… And to evoke all the good reasons not to get (again) angry with Morocco.
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