As the European elections scheduled for June 9, 2024 in France approach, political forces are getting ready to win the vote and seats in the European Parliament. Update on the latest polls.
The battle for the European elections has begun. All the main French political parties have named their head of list and are launching or have launched their campaign to convince voters and obtain a maximum of seats in the European Parliament. Candidates and party leaders have their eyes fixed on the results of the polls, because that is where the match is being played for the moment and until the vote on June 9, 2024. Pollsters are interested in the dynamics of the different forces policies since May 2023 and it is clear that the trends have been confirmed for months and favor two parties, but one in particular.
The National Rally appears to be the favorite in the election and maintains its position as the electoral meeting approaches. A position that the presidential majority envies on its heels. The campaign promises to be decisive for both forces: the first sees a victory as a chance to win in the next presidential election while the second wants to prove that it remains the leading political force in the country.
A Macron / Le Pen duel by proxy
The far-right party has been in the lead since the first opinion studies on the European election ballot. The party with the flame has never even been overtaken by its competitors and has always remained above 25% of voting intentions, flirting with and sometimes exceeding the 30% mark. Preceded by the party of Marine Le Pen Led by candidate Jordan Bardella, the presidential camp is in second position with a delay on the far right, between 4 and 10 points, but a comfortable lead of around ten points over the other competing lists.
A few months before the elections and now that it has decided on the name of its head of list – after long procrastination and refusals, it is the MEP Valérie Hayer who will represent the majority -, Macronie still has the possibility of redoing its delay. The presidential camp must win to be able to continue the end of the mandate ofEmmanuel Macron without the additional difficulty that a defeat against the far right would entail, even if it is at European and not national level. Otherwise, the presidential party would emerge considerably weakened.
A battle fought on the left
Several other lists are in the race, but none rival the two forces at the top of voting intentions. They are instead fighting for third place. And the fight is tough between the different lists of left-wing parties, the traditional right of the Republicans and the Zemmourist Reconquest party. The forces of the Nupes, dislocated since the end of 2023, are not racing together. If LFI has long called for a common list, the rebels, environmentalists, socialists and communists left in scattered order. Result: they compete for the slightest point in voting intentions but remain between 7 and 10%.
The Socialist Party, which has once again joined forces with Raphaël Glucksmann’s Place Publique party, which is head of the list, has held the lead on the left since December. But he is closely followed by environmentalists and rebels. The Communists are further behind by between 3 and 5% of voting intentions.
The left must also fight against the Republican right, which oscillates between 8 and 9%. The forces of the Reconquest party led by Marion Maréchal are also in competition, but with less support in voting intentions. The list is credited with 6 to 7% of the hypothetical votes on average.
How many seats for each party?
The results of the European elections will determine the future composition of the European Parliament and the balance of power between the different parties. 81 seats in Parliament are reserved for French elected officials and they will be distributed proportionally to each force which obtains at least 5% of votes according to their score in the ballot boxes. The party that won the elections will have more seats than the others. According to the trends currently observed in the polls, the National Rally would win more seats and could gain 10 additional places to the 18th it already occupies. Conversely, the presidential camp could lose 7 places, going from 23 elected officials to 16 according to projections.
On the left, the balances could remain approximately the same, as for the Republican right. These parties currently have between 6 and 12 places in Parliament. But the arrival of the Reconquest party should deprive these forces of a small handful of seats.
These national results influence the distribution of forces at European level and the latter risks changing following the June election. The center-right and right-wing EPP group should remain the majority group and the Social Democratic group should retain the role of second force despite a small drop in the number of elected officials. The real change would concern the third most powerful group in Parliament: the place which currently belongs to the Renew group – the one in which Emmanuel Macron’s camp sits – risks returning to the conservative CRE group formed by parties traditionally considered of far right. But be careful, it is not in this group that the National Rally sits, which belongs to the ID group, another conservative group.
As a reminder, polls and seat projections are only the image at a given time of trends concerning voting intentions and cannot be understood as predictions or reliable results.