A Russian political expert estimates that Vladimir Putin is to secure more than 80 percent of the vote in the March presidential elections.
MOSCOW A veteran politician Boris Nadezhdin the road to the presidential election in March seems to have been paved when the Central Election Commission rejected his registration as a candidate on the grounds of invalid signatures.
No one was really surprised, because Nadeždin has criticized Russia’s war of aggression in Ukraine.
Nadezhdin plans to appeal the decision to the Supreme Court of Russia. Political expert and journalist George Bovt assessed to that Nadeždin has no chance of getting into the elections.
Bovt has foreseen from the beginning that Nadeždin will not be registered and it is justified by rejected signatures.
– The collection of signatures was created in order to filter out those candidates who are not wanted, Bovt says in an interview conducted via video connection.
Among other things, the signatures must correspond very precisely to the content of the Ministry of the Interior’s databases.
Bovt gives an example: In the passport you can read that the place of birth is “Moscow city”. If in the database this is abbreviated to “Moskovan k.”, then it already gives an opportunity to state that the information in the passport and the database do not match.
A candidate can only bring the required number of signatures to the Central Election Commission and 5 percent more than that, i.e. in the case of Nadeždin, about 105,000 signatures. It was enough that 10 percent of them were found to be ineligible.
Bovt believes the Supreme Court will side with the Central Election Commission.
– Of course, it will all be resolved at other political levels, he says.
Access to television channels would have been too much
Bovt reminds that in the past Nadeždin was allowed on the federal television channels, when the programs needed a liberal politician as a spitting cup for other debaters.
– However, Nadeždin appeared unwavering enough and said things that are rarely heard on television. Therefore, he has not been invited to television for half a year.
As a presidential candidate, Nadeždi should have been allowed to speak again. Nadezhdin’s positions have been cautiously moderate, but she would have criticized President Vladimir Putin in any case. It would have been too much in the midst of hostilities.
Bovt compares the situation to allowing a pro-Russian businessman to run for president in Ukraine Viktor Medvedchukwho now lives in exile in Russia.
Nadezhdin’s petition provided an opportunity for people opposed to Putin’s regime and the war to gather together, as shown in the accompanying video.
A crushing victory is being prepared for Putin
Georgi Bovt estimates that in the March elections, the Central Election Commission will announce more than 80 percent support for Vladimir Putin.
It leaves so few votes for the candidates of the Kremlin-loyal and safe opposition parties that Nadezhdin’s candidacy was rejected.
Bovt reminds us that President Putin has genuine support.
Many Russians have even materially benefited from the war, when military industry companies are running hot. The substitution of imported goods due to sanctions and the departure of Western companies also brings jobs.
On the other hand, getting a spectacular turnout and more than 80 percent support requires the use of so-called administrative resources. The employees of agencies and state-dependent companies must be brought to the polls in full. Electronic voting also enables the manipulation of results.
Loyal opposition candidates do not inspire
In addition to President Putin, the Central Election Board has registered the leader of the nationalist LDPR party as a candidate for the elections Leonid Slutskyto the New People party Vladislav Davankov and a deputy of the Russian Communist Party Nikolai Kharitonov. These are pretty gray politicians.
– This year’s collection of candidates is not very attractive for those who do not want to vote for Putin, Bovt says.
Bovt says that many Russians view voting as a kind of bureaucratic formality and ritual, as in the Soviet era.
– Many people also feel that nothing should be changed. If it’s not Putin, then who?