Contrasting weather episodes follow one another in France from week to week: the mild weather of recent days could quickly fade. Here’s where and when.
Since the start of 2024, weather conditions in France have been particularly changeable. Intense episodes follow one another from week to week. If the start of January was very cold with significant snowfall in the plains and largely negative temperatures in the northern half of the country, the south experienced very mild temperatures during the same period. After this intense cold, temperatures immediately returned to the positive side, reaching levels well beyond seasonal norms throughout France. This spring-like climate could nevertheless end soon.
For this weekend, The Weather Channel predicts increasingly turbulent weather. Little by little, the anticyclone of subtropical origin which ensured this mild climate in France will begin to weaken. Rainy precipitation and wind are expected this Wednesday in the north and west, while from “the Pyrenees to the Alps to the Mediterranean, the sun will impose itself under great mildness”. A trend which should intensify this Thursday before really gaining momentum this Friday. The Weather Channel is indeed forecasting for this Friday a disturbance which “will extend from Aquitaine to the Alps to the eastern borders with very strong winds approaching 90 to 100 km/h from the Cévennes to the Lyonnais to the Val de Saône and in the Jura before the rain arrives.
Thus, from this weekend of February 10 and 11, the disturbances which will take hold during this week will dominate the trend. The Weather Channel announces the return of rain, particularly in the northern half of France, “where the situation of the waterways in Nord-Pas-de-Calais will once again need to be monitored”. Accumulations ranging from 20 mm to 70 mm are expected this weekend. As for the south of France, La Chaîne Météo announces less water with “between 5 and 30 mm, with almost no rain in Roussillon”. According to forecasts from the Weather Channel, most of the country will be in the rain this Saturday and some risks of thunderstorms are announced in Lyon, Montélimar and Marseille in the afternoon. The same rainy scenario is anticipated for this Sunday.
The return of winter temperatures is announced. For now “temperatures should remain very mild until Friday with a thermal indicator of +5°C above average”. However, between Saturday and Sunday they should fall suddenly, due to a shift in the “northwest flow to the rear”. The Weather Channel announces a loss of “5 to 10°C compared to what we currently know”.
The site indicates a fall in the national thermal indicator this Sunday with 4.4°C after a peak of 11.2°C announced this Friday. Temperatures should therefore return to seasonal norms, “or even temporarily below at the very end of the period”. This Saturday, temperatures will be lower but will still remain quite mild with a minimum of 8°C as in Paris, Brest or Toulouse and a maximum of 16°C in the afternoon in Perpignan. On Sunday, the climate will be much cooler with a minimum of 5°C in Lille, Rouen and Aurillac. The maximum will be reached again in Perpignan but this time with only 14°C.
With the drop in temperatures, The Weather Channel also predicts the return of “snow in the mountains at lower and lower altitudes for the start of the winter holidays next weekend”.
If the main mountain ranges are the first affected, in particular the Alps and the Jura, other geographical areas could also receive snowfall. This is the case of the Massif Central and the Vosges.