War is often a story of arithmetic. On the Eastern Front, during the Second World War, Russian and German strategists quickly understood that the winner would be the one who won the industrial battle and produced the most armored vehicles. And it was at Kursk, during the largest tank battle in history, in the summer of 1943, that the Wehrmacht lost the war.
Today, this same scenario is playing out in Ukraine. With each day that passes, Russia is becoming more and more war-economy. This year, it plans to devote 6% of its GDP (or $109 billion) to the manufacture of missiles, fighters and armored vehicles. Despite immense losses – its army lost 315,000 men and 2 tanks out of 3, according to CIA boss William Burns – Moscow could reconstitute its forces in a few years. Helped in this by deliveries of Iranian drones and electronic components coming, in particular, from China.
“War economy mode”
On the other hand, Westerners are also talking about the need to switch to a war economy to help Ukraine resist. “A Russian victory is the end of European security,” declared Emmanuel Macron on January 19, during a visit to the Cherbourg naval base. “France has a meeting with its defense industry, an industry in war economy mode.”
Certainly. But France, and the Twenty-Seven in general, are far from it. Although it delivers high-performance equipment (Caesar cannons, Scalp missiles) and is the second contributor to the “European Peace Facility” (which makes it possible to provide military equipment to third countries), France comes far behind Germany, whose military support for Ukraine exceeds 17 billion euros, almost ten times more than Paris… “Member States are not doing enough”, rightly declared the Chancellor German, Olaf Scholz.
Between fine speeches and broken promises, Europe is slipping. An example ? Last spring, the EU committed to delivering 1 million shells to the Ukrainian army. Significant figure, even if, remember, the Russians fired almost eight times more in 2023. Problem: the Ukrainian army, which suffers from an abysmal deficit in ammunition, will not have these “made in Europe” shells “. Or rather, it will only have half, according to the recent admission of Josep Borrell, the head of European diplomacy. Because we are not capable, for the moment, of increasing production rates.
1 to 0 for Pyongyang
Not very glorious, especially if we compare this poor European performance to that of the North Koreans, who had made the same promise to the Russians. Result ? 1 to 0 for Pyongyang, which would have delivered its million shells, if we are to believe the South Korean intelligence services. And to think that North Korea’s GDP is 400 times smaller than that of the European Union…
Whose fault is it ? To industrialists? The process is easy, retort the latter, who demand clearer commitments from Brussels and the Member States. Otherwise, they say, they will not invest for the long term. In this regard, is it normal that 78% of the military orders placed by the 27 are with non-European groups, as shown a study recent from the Institute of International and Strategic Relations?
Let’s stop the self-satisfaction
In short, we are far from the mark. Aid pledges to Ukraine hit their lowest level between August and October 2023, falling 87% compared to the same period a year earlier, according to the Kiel Institute. And while American military aid (by far the first, with nearly 44 billion euros in commitments since the start of the Russian invasion, according to the Kiel Institute) is suspended at the goodwill of the Republican camp, the Twenty -Seven must urgently get started. Injunctions are no longer enough. THE self-satisfaction neither. In this regard, the recent victory of the twenty-six Member States against Viktor Orban, the Hungarian troublemaker, must, whatever anyone says, be put into perspective. Certainly, the EU managed to release – unanimously – crucial financial aid of 50 billion euros for kyiv. It will help keep the Ukrainian economy afloat, even if it fails to give Ukrainian soldiers the means to fight.
Let us still ask ourselves this question: it took seven months to integrate this envelope of 50 billion into the EU budget, which will be spread over four years and represents only 0.025% of the 2021-2027 budget of the EU. European Union – which amounts to 2,018 billion euros dedicated, in particular, to the green and digital transitions. Should we really boast about it? Undoubtedly American Senator Lindsay Graham (conservative) provides the best answer to this question. During a press conference on August 23, he recalled that the United States had spent less than 3% of its military budget to help Ukrainian forces counter Russia. And that was enough, he says, to destroy half of the Russian army: “It’s the best investment ever made for American security; Ukraine is a fantastic partner – we haven’t seen one such since Churchill.”
Drones and arithmetic
In these conditions, why procrastinate? Currently, Western aid – civil and military – barely allows Ukraine to keep its head above water, but certainly not enough to repel the Russian invader. If the European Chancelleries believe that Vladimir Putin’s tsarist ambitions threaten our collective security, if they are truly aware of the geopolitical and historical stakes of this iniquitous war, they must – with or without the Americans – take stock of what is at stake. our borders. And no longer make the wrong order of magnitude. Arithmetic question.
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