On Monday, ‘s A-studio discussed how likely it is for the conflict in Ukraine to spread to other countries.
In many Western countries, there has been a discussion recently about whether Russia could possibly attack other countries after the war in Ukraine. In Sweden, for example, there has been a lot of talk about the threat of war in January.
The issue was also discussed in Monday’s A-studio. Professor of international politics at the University of Tampere Tuomas Forsbergin according to him, it is largely about awakening the people. In Finland, the discussion is familiar.
– We think that the threat exists, but it is not immediate. We have had this kind of assessment of Russia more or less since the last century.
Russia’s capacity would be sufficient for more than Ukraine
Military professor at the National Defense University, lieutenant colonel Marko Palokangas estimates that if Russia wanted to, it would have enough armed forces to strike elsewhere than Ukraine.
– In the big picture, Russia still has quite a lot of performance in many defense branches, which has not had to fight that hard.
In various reports, according to Tuomas Forsberg, Russia’s possible attack on a new country has been glimpsed in a period of 3–10 years. It’s hardly about the near future.
However, Forsberg sees that Russia can also take bigger risks if it wants to do so.
– You definitely can’t say that it couldn’t happen. Even nato does not constitute any absolute protection.
There have been two schools of thought in expert opinions regarding how Russia’s situation in Ukraine affects the risk of the conflict spreading. This can happen when Russia is successful, or vice versa, when it is doing worse on the front.
Border neighbors as victims of great power politics
According to military professor Palokanka, it is very difficult to estimate what could be Russia’s most likely next target. However, he reminds that almost all of its border neighbors have had their share of aggression throughout history.
– If necessary, Russia can use military force to achieve political goals and to restore its superpower status. The threshold for the use of military force has fallen.
Watch the entire broadcast on Areena: