Sources in the Turkish government tell the Bloomberg news agency that the Turkish parliament will take a position on Swedish NATO membership during the week. Turkish media reports that the vote will take place as early as tomorrow, Tuesday.
According to Paul Levin, director of the Institute for Turkish Studies at Stockholm University, the issue is on the agenda in parliament late in the evening on Tuesday Swedish time.
– Most things suggest that it will be a yes. Judging by how things went in the foreign affairs committee where this was prepared, it seems that there is a fairly stable majority in favor of Swedish NATO accession.
“Erdogan’s argument disappears”
If parliament votes yes, the matter will be handed over to President Erdogan, who will sign the decision before it is forwarded to Washington.
– Only he knows whether he will do it. You can imagine that he wants to hold on to this a little bit, to suck as much as possible out of this. He has been refined by this process.
– At the same time, he has sometimes used the parliament as an argument to explain that the process takes so much time. If Parliament says yes, part of his argument disappears.
Hungary risks delaying
The question is also how much consideration Erdogan will take to Hungary, the other NATO country that has not yet ratified Sweden’s application. Prime Minister Viktor Orbán has been clear that the country will not be the last to vote on the application, and there is therefore a risk that Erdogan will delay the process further, according to Paul Levin.
– Turkey and Hungary have good relations. One can imagine that Erdogan wants to do his friend Orban a favor and let Hungary ratify first.
“We are in the final phase”
At the same time, he states that he believes we are in the “final phase” of the Swedish NATO process.
– This can be done very quickly. Erdogan could sign as early as the day after tomorrow if parliament votes yes tomorrow.