Births in France: a decline due to multiple factors, difficult to slow down

How can this decline be explained and can it be slowed down? Update on the situation.

Where is the French birth rate?

Since 2011, the number of births has fallen each year in France, with the exception of 2021, which saw a slight rebound after the confinements linked to Covid-19. Between January and November 2023, there were 621,691 births.

Over the whole of 2022, 726,000 babies were born, the lowest number over a year since the end of the Second World War. That year, we observed a decline in births in all French regions, except Mayotte and Corsica.

Although it is declining, France’s fertility rate remains the highest in the European Union, with 1.84 children per woman in 2021, according to Eurostat. The EU average reaches 1.53.

INSEE highlights a demographic factor: the number of women aged 20 to 40, i.e. of childbearing age, has decreased.

Additionally, smaller generations of women have fewer children, perhaps due to social factors. “To start a family, you have to have hope. However, the younger generations are perhaps more concerned about their future“, comments to AFP Catherine Scornet, lecturer at the University of Aix-Marseille.

The uncertain economic situation, marked by high inflation, the context of war in Ukraine and the Middle East as well as global warming thus create a “climate of uncertainty“which can curb the desire to have a child,” she adds.

The demographic sociologist also notes changes in aspirations: some decide to have fewer or no children at all for “libertarian reasons”, linked to “individual emancipation”. They prefer to remain free to prioritize other projects. “Graduate women are those who project themselves the most outside of motherhood, they invest and flourish in other personal or professional fields.“, specifies Catherine Scornet.

What are the consequences of a decline in the birth rate?

A change in the structure of the population requires States to adapt their public policies.

Firstly, the presence of a smaller number of children has a “positive” effect on public finances since it means “less spending on education, care and benefits“, Hippolyte d’Albis, professor at the Paris School of Economics, told AFP. The country can then invest in other areas.

The situation can become more complex when these generations reach adulthood: the share of the active population, on which the “dynamism of an economy and the balance of social accounts“, risks decreasing.

“However, we can use other levers to increase the active population: for example, promoting the employment of seniors, women or resorting to immigration“, adds the economist.

Today, the active population represents some 40% of the total population in France.

Can we change the trend?

Demographers believe that there is a link between pronatalist measures and fertility but that it remains difficult to measure.

Currently, the question of balancing professional and family life is a key element. “Effective public policies are those that make life easier for parents. Thus, people who hesitate to take the plunge and have a child see that it does not involve an insurmountable sacrifice.“, tells AFP Laurent Toulemon, research director at the National Institute of Demographic Studies (INED).

On the other hand, pronatalist measures which consist of giving a financial bonus at the time of a birth remain ineffective. “People know that having children involves long-term expenses.“, underlines the demographer.

Note: there is an issue of “confidence” and “credibility” of the proposed measures. In France, where fertility remains relatively high, there has been a “solid” family policy for decades. In South Korea, despite a proactive policy, fertility remains low. “Women know they will still have to make enormous sacrifices to raise children, due to social norms“, notes Laurent Toulemon.