The German Bild published a scenario by the German Defense Forces on how NATO and Russia could end up at war in 2025.
Escalation between NATO and Russia could start as early as next month, Saksalaislehti Bild writes (behind the paywall) about the secret script he got his hands on.
According to Bild, it accurately outlines “how the Russian dictator Vladimir Putin is progressing and how NATO must defend itself.” The situation would lead to the Bundeswehr forces of the German armed forces clashing with the Russians next year.
Former intelligence chief of the General Staff, Major General evp and current member of parliament of the coalition Pekka Toveri calms down. He probably sees the scenario as a basis for a staff exercise or a troop exercise.
This is hardly a secret security analysis.
– In the scenario, the scheduling is far too tight. Russia will not have the ability to challenge NATO in 2025, Toveri estimates.
According to the friend, the leak happened because the time in Germany is suitable for this type of discussion topic. The topic is hot and there are warnings of a military conflict.
According to the comrade, NATO has “a considerable number” of similar, secret and highly secret security scenarios. There can be many possible courses of events, because the front is also wide: from the Black Sea to the Arctic regions.
Toveri does not want to comment on what kind of scenarios Finland has in case of Russia.
– We have really only had one major threat throughout independence, so we know quite well what could happen.
Could an armed conflict arise between NATO and Russia, if not next year, then at some point?
– At the moment, no, but if Russia were to win in Ukraine, it would empower the Russians: the West could start to be considered weak, says Toveri.
According to the comrade, Russia still wants a buffer zone for itself and to change the European security structure so that it would be controlled by Russia, not the United States.
At the same time, when the capability of the Russian armed forces has been overestimated, the German armed forces have been estimated to be in a miserable state. What kind of resistance would NATO have against the Russians?
– NATO forces are generally well trained and equipped. But Germany has a significant material shortage, as do other Western armies. The image of the war has been wrong. Ammunition stocks have been far too small. In the next 10–15 years, the warehouses must be filled and the inventory balances must be multiplied.
Would Finland’s NATO membership also automatically involve Finland in military operations?
– Depends on the situation. If Russia attacks a NATO country, Article Five obliges to defend. If Russia were to attack Romania, for example, nothing would necessarily go there from Finland. Then we would look at what abilities are needed, whether it is material or know-how, Toveri estimates.