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Presidential aspirant and former president Donald Trump, photographed at a campaign rally in Clinton, Iowa, in early January.
1 / 3 Photo: Charlie Neibergall/AP/TT
Is Donald Trump sweeping the carpet with his fellow contestants? Can Ron DeSantis or Nikki Haley pull off a surprise?
Now Republicans are gathering for caucuses in Iowa, the first drawdown in the process to nominate the party’s presidential nominee.
– We will make history and win big in Iowa, a disgruntled ex-president Trump said the other day.
Dennis Goldford, professor of political science at Drake University in Des Moines, Iowa, is prepared to agree with him – but with some reservations.
– It would be a huge bombshell if things don’t go well for Trump. But the Iowa election is about expectations. If Trump “only” gets 40 percent or less, it will raise questions about weakness, he tells TT.
Big headlines
It is said that many roads lead to Iowa, but there are only three tickets from there. The saying describes how important it is to succeed in the country’s first primary election state. It is not unusual for presidential aspirants to throw in the towel when the votes are counted there.
Being first in the primary election process means enormous attention from politicians and the media. The winner in Iowa gets big headlines, political tailwinds and a boost in donations – something that can ensure the survival of a campaign.
This year, however, is very different. On the Democratic side, President Joe Biden is running for re-election and his candidacy is not seriously threatened. On the Republican side, Trump has a breathtaking lead of more than 50 percentage points over his closest competitors.
“Went Down”
In Iowa, the gap is slightly smaller, but Trump’s support is a whopping 35 percentage points higher than former UN Ambassador Nikki Haley and Florida Governor Ron DeSantis. They are both at just over 16 percent, according to Real Clear Politics’ compilation of polls.
However, the stragglers are working on the nomination meetings which will be held in the winter weather this evening local time. In the first four days of January, Ron DeSantis made a total of 99 appearances in 57 counties (approximately counties), according to the news site Axios.
– DeSantis has bet everything on Iowa. But his campaign has gone downhill since he launched it. If he doesn’t secure a strong second place here, it’s hard to see a continuation, says Goldford.
Struggle for VP post?
The Republican starting field, which was so broad last fall, has already thinned out. After the recent defection of ex-governor and Trump critic Chris Christie, it basically consists of Haley, DeSantis, entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy — and Donald Trump.
The ex-president himself has skipped all the primary debates and is acting like the candidacy was his. Speculation about whether the primaries are really a contest for the post of Trump’s vice presidential nominee is in full swing. But Goldford doesn’t think he’s choosing any of his fellow contestants.
– Trump is so self-centered, for him everything depends on loyalty.
FACT The state of opinion in Iowa
The percentage of support for the Republican presidential candidates ahead of the Iowa caucuses. In parentheses, the national opinion support is reported, according to the current average of measurements produced by Real Clear Politics.
Donald Trump, businessman and former president: 52.2 (62.2)
Nikki Haley, former UN ambassador and governor: 16.6 (11)
Ron DeSantis, Florida Governor: 16.4 (11.1)
Vivek Ramaswamy, Entrepreneur: 7 (4.2)
Read moreFACTSowa
Iowa is located in the Midwest of the United States. The state borders Minnesota to the north, Nebraska and South Dakota to the west, Missouri to the south, and Wisconsin and Illinois to the east. On the surface, the state is slightly smaller than Götaland and Svealand combined.
Has 3.2 million inhabitants of which roughly 4 percent are black and 7 percent are Spanish-speaking so-called Latinos. The capital is Des Moines.
Named after the Ioway indigenous people group, who have long lived in the area. Also called the Hawkeye state, as a tribute to the Indian chief Black Hawk (Black Hawk) who led the Sauk people who also lived in Iowa.
Is one of the US’s leading producers of beef, pork, corn, soybeans and grains.
Donald Trump won the state’s six electoral votes in the 2016 presidential election, the first Republican victory there since 1988. In 2020, Trump won again in Iowa, where he received 53 percent of the vote.
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