Grandpa resists. In the United States, the question of the age of the two favorites in the presidential election, which will take place on November 5, 2024, is becoming more and more important. Joe Biden, 81, and Donald Trump, 77, will be, if elected, 86 and 83 respectively at the end of their mandate. Llife expectancy in the USA being approximately 74 years for men (79 years for women) and the presidential function being particularly demanding, observers and citizens are wondering. Will their health be good enough for them to make the right decisions? Will they simply be able to complete their mandate?
Because a death would not be the only event likely to shorten the presidential term. A heart attack or stroke could also force the president to resign or invoke the 25th Amendment to the US Constitution, which provides for the vice president to take over. Knowing that the risk of heart attack or stroke doubles every 10 years, understandable concern could influence votes in the primaries of both parties.
Jay Olshansky, a gerontologist at the University of Illinois and a leading specialist in longevity, has conducted several studies on the subject. In particular, he published, just before the 2020 presidential election, an analysis covering “the lifespan and future health of Joe Biden and Donald Trump.” According to these estimates, Joe Biden’s life expectancy was 96.8 years, compared to 88.6 years for Trump. Their chances of surviving the next four years (from 2020 to 2024) were therefore 95.2% for Biden and 90.3% for Trump. The analysis further indicated that both candidates were likely to be superagers, a subgroup of the population who remain fit beyond the age of 80, due in part to a family history of exceptional longevity and therefore had a high chance of surviving the next presidential term “with their mental and physical attributes intact.” Interviewed by L’Express, Professor Olshansky explains his calculations, his method and his predictions. Interview.
L’Express: Has your analysis of 2020 changed? What are the life expectancies of Joe Biden and Donald Trump today?
Jay Olshansky: We have not updated these calculations and will only do so when the primaries are over and the number of candidates is reduced to two. Our new estimates will most likely be the same, with four fewer years compared to 2020. We still think Biden, although older, will likely outlast Trump.
For what ?
His health profile remains exceptional for a man of his age. His body mass index (BMI) is ideal, he is physically active, takes few medications, has no identifiable life-threatening illnesses, has excellent cholesterol and low inflammation. Trump shares most of these positives, except for his obesity. He is also much more sedentary.
What are the main threats facing them?
These are the usual causes that influence the risk of death for most people reaching this age: cancer, cardiovascular diseases, accidents, falls, dementia, etc. The main current threat is also their main risk factor, namely their biological age. That said, people biologically age at different rates, so their chronological age isn’t as relevant as you might think. As we noted in our 2020 analysis, there is reason to believe that both candidates could be superagers.
How did you arrive at these conclusions?
There is nothing very complicated. Average life tables are most often used to estimate life expectancy, but they are based on mortality dynamics observed in an entire population. We took the analysis further by examining in detail medical records, family history, and personal risk factor profile, all of which provide exceptionally high predictive value for estimating survival. Of course, these measurements are not perfect, but perfection is not possible anyway.
For example, we know that on average smokers lose a certain number of years of life depending on the amount and duration of their smoking. Or that college-educated people almost universally live longer than average. When you put all of these elements of an individual together, it becomes possible to reliably determine the likelihood that a person will live longer or shorter than average. For more details, you can consult the 2020 analysis.
Couldn’t we retort that these are just statistics, and that they don’t have much predictive value?
Of course, we do use statistics. This is how we estimate the life expectancy of human beings. There is no definitive biological marker of biological age today, so statistics are the only way to estimate survival. The good news is that there are centuries of data from many countries that allow us to obtain life expectancy very reliably and, better yet, to estimate life expectancy just as reliably of life based on the attributes of each individual.
You say there are no definitive markers. However, scientists who published a study in the journal cell in January 2023 discovered twelve markers of aging (cellular senescence, chronic inflammation, etc.)? Couldn’t we obtain more reliable measurements by measuring these different markers?
No. There are many biomarkers associated with the biological process of aging, but none of them have yet been verified as reliable predictors of longevity. Biomarkers detect something that can eventually be proven to be related to survival, but we must keep in mind that to do this we must validate the influence of the biomarker on survival. This requires time and a certain type of data that we do not yet have. There is also no way of obtaining these biomarkers from election candidates. So, no, these biomarkers would not currently improve the accuracy of survival estimates. But maybe that will be the case in the future.
You have shown that American presidents generally come from privileged backgrounds, which implies many advantages, especially when it comes to health. From France, we imagine that being rich in the United States is one of them, since health is particularly expensive in your country. Are there others?
Indeed, most American presidents – including Biden and Trump – have come from the same type of privileged background and the influence of this privilege on survival has been thoroughly studied and documented in the medical and scientific literature over the last half century. . The most important predictive factor when it comes to survival, besides age and gender, is education. Any individual who continues their studies beyond high school sees their life expectancy increase considerably. This translates into higher incomes, better access to health care and quality food, etc.
A study published in 2015 in the journal BMJ suggests that running a country could cause an average loss of 4.4 years of life expectancy. Doesn’t this exhausting exercise of power counterbalance the advantages you were talking about?
According to my own research published in the journal JAMA, there do not appear to be any significant negative effects related to the office of president. Stress is often considered a risk factor for reduced lifespan. But apparently that doesn’t apply to U.S. presidents who seem to thrive under stress, or at least handle it effectively.
Yet everyone was marked by the famous photos comparing presidents before and after their presidency. Is this perception wrong?
Yes. And I also talked about it in my article published in JAMA. Take a photo of someone in their 50s, then another eight years later: they look older. It’s logic.
Finally, what should voters conclude when faced with elderly candidates? Should they favor the youngest?
The chronological age of the candidates is not relevant. If the recommendation was to only vote for younger candidates, we would never have had a president elected past the age of 30. But why do you think we have a minimum age? [NDLR : aux Etats-Unis, il faut avoir 35 ans ou plus pour se présenter à l’élection présidentielle] ? This is because it takes time to gain the experience necessary for decision-making on the scale of a president. This means that greater age should be associated with greater wisdom. If we only voted for the youngest candidate, we would be depriving ourselves of the incredibly valuable experience that age brings. In fact, Joe Biden’s age could even be considered his superpower.
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