Democracy is threatened by an increasingly aggressive China, and it is above all two events in recent years that have gone right into the hearts of all Taiwanese:
• When the 2019-2020 Beijing regime violently crushed Hong Kong’s democracy movement.
• When Russia with China’s tacit blessing suddenly attacked Ukraine in 2022.
Taiwan could see with breathtaking clarity a horror version of their own future unfolding.
After all, freedom of speech and some democracy would be allowed to remain in Hong Kong when the British left the area. Certain autonomy and freedom of the press would be offered to the residents even after the Chinese takeover.
But China’s promises were not worth water.
Despite peaceful, massive popular demonstrations for many months, the activists were put down with brutal violence.
Human rights and free elections were swept away in one fell swoop.
“Whoops hell” thought shocked Taiwanese.
Wars of conquest happen – even in the 2020s
Is this what awaits us if China’s leaders make good on their ominous promises and incorporate Taiwan under the red Beijing flag?
But won’t there be any wars of conquest in the 2020s? Cannot aggressive dictatorships be allowed to march in and bomb and tear apart democratic neighboring countries in this century?
Yes. It happens. On February 24, 2022, Putin invaded the EU and NATO yearning Ukraine.
Now it is 2024 and the illegal war of aggression has been going on for almost two years without NATO, the UN or the EU being able to stop it. Hundreds of thousands have been killed, schools, hospitals and theaters have been bombed to pieces and tens of thousands of Ukrainian children have been kidnapped by the Russian occupiers.
China has watched, read the international reactions and chosen to continue supporting Russia.
The Taiwanese have seen all this. Everything has been recorded, and shook Taiwan.
But the question is what lessons have the residents here in the island nation learned.
The conclusions are divided. One group interprets the development as Taiwan should sit still in the boat and just pursue the status quo; no declarations of independence, no cocky calls for a total break with mainland China. No actions or actions that could provoke Beijing.
Instead, “dialogue”, promoting trade and continuing to focus on a common Chinese identity on both sides of the Straits.
Another group of Taiwanese draws completely different conclusions: Dictatorship China has shown its true face. Beijing, in cooperation with Russia, wants to take over the US’s position of power in the world and will ruthlessly subjugate the territories that are considered part of the “empire”.
Must find his own way
Therefore, Taiwan must seek its own path. It is not worth bowing to Beijing. Taiwan must arm and prepare to defend its democracy militarily.
Slightly simplified, it is also these two approaches that stand against each other in Saturday’s presidential and parliamentary elections. The ruling party DPP stands for the more independent line vis-à-vis Beijing. Focus on cooperation with the USA and the EU. Bury the idea of mainland China and Taiwan reunification. Take a tougher stance against Xi Jinping’s Communist Party.
The opposition KMT, on the other hand, advocates a more cautious, cooperative line. No talk of independence. Instead, perpetuate the old idea of a unified China that includes both Taiwan and mainland China.
The third party TPP is trying to attract voters with a middle path. As early as Saturday evening, we should have the answer to how the recent dramatic developments in the world have affected the Taiwanese voters.
Taiwan’s fate important for Europe
Do they choose to go along with the Beijing regime to keep the “peace”?
Or a more independent choice of path that risks leading to the Beijing regime feeling “forced” to subdue Taiwan with military force?
For us in Europe, the fate of Taiwan is important. A functioning democracy is threatened by a powerful aggressive dictatorship. Taiwan risks becoming the next scene of the power struggle currently underway in our world; where the China-led dictatorship gang wants to seize ever greater influence at the expense of people’s freedom.
This time it’s here in Asia. Next time it could be in Northern Europe.