According to a study by the University of Oxford, the center-left will hardly succeed in attracting more voters by imitating the strict economic and immigration policies of the right.
According to a recent study, imitating the right-wing in immigration or economic policy does not help the center-left parties of Western Europe to attract more voters and may even drive away supporters.
Formerly strong social democratic parties are currently in trouble in many European countries. Their vote shares are shrinking at the same time as the extreme right has become stronger. In many countries, social democrats have responded to this by moving to the right.
According to research from the University of Oxford however, this can be a disastrous tactic. Contrary to assumptions, social democrats do not compete to a significant extent for the same voters with right-wing populists.
The average Social Democrat voter today is very different from 50 or even 20 years ago, and is unlikely to be an industrial worker, says one of the researchers, Associate Professor Tarik Abou-Chadi according to the British newspaper The Guardian.
In addition, only a few supporters of the extreme right previously considered themselves a social democrat, and only a few voters could consider voting for both the social democrats and the radical right. For most social democrats, the radical right would be the last option and vice versa.
Those voters who reject the Social Democrats most often switch to the voters of the Greens, the radical left or the center right – or don’t vote at all.
“Voters don’t want a copy”
Abou-Chadi states to The Guardian that a large number of Social Democrat voters are both culturally progressive and economically to the left.
They support a strong welfare state, efficient public services and real investments in, for example, the green transition. Those who vote for the left also do not support limiting social security for immigrants.
On the other hand, those voters who support strict economic discipline or restricting the rights of immigrants are unlikely to vote for the left, even if it also includes them in its program. Those who support fiscal discipline, for example, trust conservatives more.
– Voters usually like the original more than a copy, Abou-Chadi states.