in Europe, the inexorable progression of the far right – L’Express

The scenario makes Marine Le Pen dream. According to the latest site estimates Europe Elects, the Identity and Democracy (ID) group, to which the National Rally belongs, could overtake Renew Europe, that of Emmanuel Macron, at the end of the European elections in June (84 to 98 seats for the first against 75 to 90 for the second). Better for the far-right leader: the nationalist rights in the broad sense could even be arithmetically ahead of the EPP, the powerful gathering of traditional rights (169 to 185 seats).

In 2024, Europe is expected to continue to turn brown. In Portugal, the Chega party will probably continue to gain seats in the legislative elections in March, while in Germany the AfD should finish first in the regional elections and score well in the European elections. “Far-right groups are in good health today – with a few exceptions [NDLR : la Pologne] -: they have gained power, as in Italy, provide decisive support for it, as in Sweden, or post flattering polls as in France, underlines Benjamin Biard, of the Center for Socio-Political Research and Information of Brussels. And a barrier has been broken: it is no longer taboo to say that you vote for or support an extreme right-wing party, as before.”

Will this progression have an influence on the policies carried out in Brussels? No, Jean-Dominique Giuliani wants to believe. “The majority in Strasbourg should remain in the hands of an EPP-Renew-Greens coalition,” explains the president of the Robert-Schuman Foundation. And when the extreme right comes to power, as with Giorgia Meloni in Italy, it applies a European policy, because the Member States need Community cooperation.” Not to mention that in Parliament, the two groups on the right of the right have never managed to agree: Meloni and the Polish ultranationalists of PiS (CRE) refusing to appear with Le Pen or the AfD (ID) , considered accommodating with Russia.

However, this rise in nationalist movements should continue to influence the policies of the governments that make up the European Union. “They are winning the battle of ideas right to the center, as demonstrated by Macron’s immigration law adopted in December with the votes and satisfaction of Marine Le Pen and her troops, and even, sometimes, to left, as in Denmark, where the government pursues a very firm policy on the subject, notes Benjamin Biard. On the continent, the principle of processing asylum requests outside the borders of the EU was unimaginable a few years ago.”

A strengthening of the far right “would also risk calling into question Brussels’ monitoring of good respect for the protection of minorities and the rule of law among the Twenty-Seven”, believes the Belgian researcher. These are some of the cardinal principles of the European Union.