Inflation in France jumped slightly to 3.7% year-on-year in December, after 3.5% in November, due to the “acceleration” of energy and service prices, according to provisional data published Thursday January 4 by the National Institute of Statistics (Insee). Energy prices increased by 5.6% year-on-year in December (compared to 3.1% in November) and those of services by 3.1% (after 2.8%).
Energy prices, which represent less than a tenth of the household consumption basket, would however fall over one month, unlike those of services (around half of the basket). Food prices, which had been the main driver of inflation in 2023 with a peak of almost 16% in the spring, however continued to slow down, with an increase of 7.1% year-on-year in December ( compared to 7.7% in November).
Inflation at 4.9% over one year
But the prices of fresh products followed the opposite trend, increasing by 8.8% in December, after 6.6% in November. Prices of manufactured products slowed to +1.4% in December year-on-year, after +1.9%. The harmonized consumer price index, allowing European comparisons, also increased in December, to 4.1% year-on-year, compared to 3.9% in November.
In December, the Minister of Economy and Finance, Bruno Le Maire, estimated that the inflationary crisis caused by the repercussions of Covid-19 and then the war in Ukraine was “behind us” in France, but that the level of inflation would remain “a little higher” than before the crisis, notably due to the energy transition. In its latest forecasts published in mid-December, INSEE expects inflation to be 4.9% on average annually in 2023 (after 5.2% in 2022), and 2.6% over one year next June. . The Banque de France predicted that inflation would reach 5.7% on annual average in 2023 and fall to 2.5% in 2024, measured here according to the harmonized consumer price index (HICP).