The latest polls ahead of the European elections give a large advantage to the far-right bloc in France. Figures to qualify.
“It is with a heart full of optimism that I offer you my best wishes,” declared Marine Le Pen in her end-of-year speech. Five months before the European elections, the president of the deputies of the National Rally has reason to hope. According to the Odoxa barometer unveiled on December 19 by Public Senatehis party is well ahead of French voting intentions in the 2024 European elections. More broadly, the bloc considered to be far-right concentrates almost 40% of voting intentions.
31% for the National Rally, 6% for Reconquête, the party of Eric Zemmour whose list will be led by Marion Maréchal, and another 2% for Debout La France, the party of Nicolas Dupont-Aignan. The categorization of these three political groups as far-right is currently debated, with their members all rejecting this label. However, they have in common a rejection of immigration and traditional parties which still allows, according to many commentators, to classify them as far right, even if they enshrine their action in Republican law.
Abstention still in mind?
Between them, the National Rally, Reconquête and Debout La France therefore account for 39% of voting intentions, according to the Odoxa barometer. Does this mean that more than a third of French people now support their ideas? Not exactly. Because these figures only take into account French people who intend to vote on June 9. However, European elections usually see a high rate of abstention. In 2019, almost one in two French people (49.88%) did not go to the polls for the European vote. In 2014, 57.57% of French people registered on the lists abstained. Far ahead of the far-right bloc, it is therefore abstention which could win, again this year.
Let us add that even if 39% of voters slipped an RN, Reconquête or Debout La France ballot into the ballot box on June 9, this does not mean that 39% of the French MEPs elected would come from these three groups. Indeed, for the European vote there is a threshold of 5% below which a list obtains no seat. Nicolas Dupont-Aignan’s party, given today at 2%, therefore has very little chance of obtaining any MEP. For Marion Maréchal’s list, given at 6%, nothing has yet been won.