During Friday-Saturday, the forecasts point to more than ten degrees colder than normal on average across the country. This creates an extra large demand for electricity – power peaks that exceed what Sweden’s own electricity production can handle. Fortunately, many workplaces still run at half speed after the weekends, which keeps electricity demand down.
– It could have been even higher. But there will be a need for imports, says Johan Sigvardsson, electricity analyst at the electricity company Bixia.
The price is tripled
Because towards the weekend the winds also decrease. In northern Sweden, some wind farms also struggle with ice problems on the rotors, although this is quite normal. And nuclear power is not running at full capacity. On Wednesday, Forsmark announced that the shutdown at one of the three reactors will be extended until January 24, which means it will run at half speed.
All in all, Johan Sigvardsson estimates that the electricity price will rise to around SEK 1.50 per kilowatt hour (kWh) throughout the country in the next few days, from Wednesday’s level of 66 öre/kWh.
It is still significantly lower than what it looked like during cold days last winter. The better electricity situation with lower fuel prices in Europe, French nuclear power in better shape, means that the supposed electricity imports in the coming days will not be quite as expensive.
It is also not as cold in the south of Sweden, which dampens consumption.
The weather decides
What happens to the price the rest of the winter and spring depends on the weather. The long-term forecast currently points to a rather cold January.
Deficits in the water dams will have an effect on electricity prices later this spring. The futures contracts on Nasdaq’s commodity exchange for electricity delivery during the second quarter have risen clearly in recent weeks, although not to any discouraging levels like in autumn winter 2022/2023, from around 40 öre to around 60 öre/kWh seen for the whole Nordic region.
On top of the market price, the electricity company’s mark-up, electricity tax (which was increased at the turn of the year), VAT and grid charge of over one kroner/kWh are added.