The year 2023 ends in pain for the presidential camp, divided by the immigration law. A text which once again placed the National Rally at the center of the political game, while the Nupes is in distress and the Republicans, even if they have regained some colors, remain in great difficulty.
Last March, article 49.3 drawn up by Élisabeth Borne, even perceived by public opinion as a forceful passage, allowed the majority to overcome the first major obstacle of the year: the very unpopular pension reform.
The government had still received a free warning, failing to fall by nine votes, during the vote on the motion of censure tabled by the small LIOT group (Libertés, independents, overseas and territories). “ Macronie is hanging by a thread », Estimated the leader of the rebellious deputies, Mathilde Panot. But the thread had not broken. Nine months later, he almost broke.
The chaotic adoption of the immigration law, so hardened by the right that the far right chose to vote for it, cracked the presidential majority more relative than ever in the National Assembly. From the centrists of Modem to the deputies of Édouard Philippe’s party, Horizons, including those of Renaissance, a quarter of the members of Emmanuel Macron’s camp abstained or voted against.
And the government shook on its foundations, the Minister of Health Aurélien Rousseau resigning in the process. A lesser evil, many having considered imitating it before changing their mind. But already looking ahead to 2024 and a possible major reshuffle, one of them warns: “ In January, things might shake hard. »
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The RN continues to trace its path
A prospect which delights the RN (National Rally), which has emerged strengthened from the immigration sequence.
With more than 30% of voting intentions in the European elections, Marine Le Pen seen as the main opponent of Emmanuel Macron and the National Rally which is eating away at respectability points: the strategy of demonization initiated since the arrival of the party’s 88 deputies in the National Assembly gained further ground in 2023.
By posing as a constructive opposition and “ well mannered ” in front of the ” bordelization » of rebellious France, the RN is still seeking to carve out the guise of a government party. He also voted for almost half of the texts submitted by the presidential camp. With one obsession: avoiding skidding and leaving the road. A strategy summarized by an RN deputy: “ We don’t get carried away and we stay focused. »
Because Marine Le Pen has decided to begin a new phase “ more offensive » so as not to appear to be only making political moves in the Assembly. If the final text of the immigration law was, for example, a good surprise for the RN, “ proof that the party’s ideas infuse “, there is no question of letting the ” good sequence “.
Next objective: to ensure a triumph for the Europeans and obtain with its allies in Brussels the same strategic position as that now held in France.
SOS, Nupes in distress
European elections which promise to be very delicate for Nupes (New Ecological and Social Popular Union), or what remains of it. Each party has in fact planned to present its own list, and the last few months have only reinforced this separation.
“ Tensions “, ” thunderstorms »: in fact, when we ask the elected representatives of Nupes to summarize the year 2023 in one word, the tone is gloomy. However, everything did not start so badly, with ranks closed in the battle against pension reform. But the unity cracked over the weeks and the gap then only widened.
The Nupes thus left in dispersed order for the senatorial elections, and the war in the Middle East then divided the union, the rebels being accused of insensitivity to the massacres committed by Hamas. The Socialist Party thus decided to suspend its collaboration with Nupes in the National Assembly, following the distancing from the Communist Party.
The result is summarized by the boss of the communist deputies, André Chassaigne: “ In the window, the name remains, but not the object », Nupes having become a label with little meaning.
Some, however, welcome clarification: 2023 was a moment of “ truth » on the real positions of each person, believes LFI deputy Paul Vannier. “ Damage » estimates the boss of the rebels, Jean-Luc Mélenchon, who nevertheless sees, in the end-of-year truce, the opportunity given to everyone to “ think carefully ” following.
Republicans still on a tightrope
Finding the right strategy will also be the objective of the Republicans in 2024, after a 2023 vintage ended in a manner deemed positive thanks to the adoption of an immigration law giving pride of place to the party’s proposals.
“ A hope has risen on the right ! » thus jubilant Laurent Wauquiez in Le Figaro, two days after the vote on the text. “ The conditions are ripe for a strong right to return », Welcomes the LR president of the Auvergne-Rhône-Alpes region, putative candidate of his political family in 2027.
With only 62 deputies and despite its catastrophic result in the 2022 presidential election, the right managed this year to impose its ideas and bend the government on a very political text, eight months after forcing the executive to pass in force on the pension reform. Incidentally, the immigration law will have allowed Éric Ciotti to unite the party. Deputies and senators are united, and no rebels this time.
But by pushing the cursor ever further to the right, this victory also benefits the National Rally. And it will not make us forget the difficult test that awaits the right in 2024: the Europeans. LRs no longer have the right to make mistakes. If they fall below 5%, they will no longer have any elected representatives in Strasbourg. And it will be very difficult to get back up, especially in the absence of an undisputed leader.
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