There are strategic, security and civilizational reasons. And then the economic balances and tensions. Behind the process of Ukraine’s accession to the European Union, an issue has been carefully overlooked. With its current operating rules – notably the unanimous vote on tax matters, the absence of social harmonization, the insufficiency of the budget and its allocation – is the EU sufficiently solid for this new stage, even if it won’t happen for years? Ukraine is not Montenegro, nor North Macedonia, two other candidates for membership. It is a major agricultural nation, whose green power accounts for nearly 15% of gross domestic product and employs more than 20% of the workforce. However, the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) is the Union’s largest expenditure item. With the CAP budget unchanged, we can already imagine the big bang in the allocation of aid.
It is an understatement to say that the agricultural subject is flammable. In June 2022, while the Black Sea ports were closing, Europe – rightly – opened its doors wide to Ukrainian production to help kyiv export: no more customs duties and quotas. But quickly, the tone rose with Poland, Hungary and Slovakia who, faced with the influx of cheap Ukrainian seeds competing with local production, blocked imports.
Ukraine is not just a grain giant. It is also a heavyweight in sugar, poultry, eggs, etc. In one year, chicken exports to the European Union jumped by 150%. Those of sugar have multiplied by 15. Very recently, in France, the egg industry sounded the alarm, fearing the massive arrival of poor quality products while avian flu is still wreaking havoc on French farms and that new standards imposed by Brussels will require heavy investments. The two largest Ukrainian producers, Avangard and Ovostar, both listed on the stock exchange, each weigh between three and five times more than the largest French cooperatives. They respect neither the same environmental rules nor the same health rules as French producers, while the Ukrainian minimum wage barely exceeds 200 euros per month.
While Ukraine’s accession to the Union is a necessity for the strategic security of the continent, the agricultural issue must first be resolved. In the Netherlands, the populist and anti-European BoerBurgerBeweging peasant movement has already established itself as a leading political force. Sticking your head in the sand risks being costly at the polls.