Vladimir Putin wants to arm up along the Finnish border. But it may be difficult for Russia to succeed, according to Lieutenant Colonel Jörgen Elfving.
– I am extremely doubtful that you will reach the goals you have set, taking into account the losses you had in Ukraine.
Russia has previously had a good relationship with Finland, but the country’s NATO membership creates problems – and Russia will now rearm along the border, says Russian President Vladimir Putin in a television interview. The statement is similar to how the tone has sounded from the Russian side since Finland began to consider – and then succeeded – in becoming a member of NATO.
– What has been said is that Finland’s NATO membership and Sweden’s possible membership constitute a threat. It is against this background that the Russian announced force build-up along the Finnish border should be seen, says Lieutenant Colonel Jörgen Elfving.
Unlikely with offensive
Since the end of the Cold War, the military presence along the border between Russia and Finland has been low. Russia now wants to increase and reestablish its presence in the area.
But given Russia’s pressured military situation, due to the war in Ukraine, it may be difficult for the country to succeed in carrying out the rearmament along the border in the manner promised, Jörgen Elfving assesses.
– I am extremely doubtful that you will reach the goals you have set, taking into account the losses you had in Ukraine.
It is also highly unlikely that Russia would act militarily against Finland, according to Elfving.
Sweden ready to support
For Sweden, the tense situation between the countries means that Sweden must be prepared to diplomatically and militarily support Finland, if required.
Sweden is so far outside of NATO, as Hungary and Turkey have not said yes to Sweden in the alliance. But it is not likely that the Russian rhetoric towards Sweden will change if we become a NATO country, judges Jörgen Elfving.
– From the Russian side, it has already been realized that sooner or later we will become a NATO member.