Barely named, already contested. The day after the legislative elections of June 2022 which did not result in an absolute majority, Elisabeth Borne is fighting not to be ousted: “It makes me laugh that I am being presented as a technologist. For five years, I carried in Parliament texts which resulted in conclusive CMPs (joint committees). There is a perimeter of reasonable people which allows us to move forward.”
No more laughing. This time the Prime Minister has five days to save her skin and her position. Because in five days, we will know. In five days, Emmanuel Macron will know. Tuesday the 19th in the evening, one of two things: the immigration bill is adopted, or thrown in the trash.
Article 45 of the Constitution provides that the meeting of a joint committee is a decision of the Prime Minister, even if it was an injunction from the President. So she’s the one who sticks to it. On the menu, a hot potato. Elisabeth Borne is obliged to note that the months and months of debate on the text have served nothing but to bring points of view closer together – there is no need to give the name of the person responsible, we understand. Between the version voted by the right-wing Senate and the one adopted by the Assembly’s Law Committee, there is a gulf. How to succeed in less than a week what has failed for almost a year and a half? “The earlier you start, the more complicated it is,” we modestly observe at Matignon.
There are two Elisabeth Bornes and the near future will tell if there is one too many. The first is head of government, the second head of the majority, both want to speak equally loudly. The first wants a text to succeed at all costs, the second wants to preserve the unity of its camp. It is not a question of giving in too much to the right to obtain a conclusive CMP and then seeing the majority deputies fracture at the time of the vote. Between her two hats, she refuses to choose, but is it tenable?
With LR, the difficulty is landing. Elisabeth Borne had the good taste not to stir up memories in front of her visitors from Wednesday and Thursday (who will return on Sunday), Eric Ciotti, Olivier Marleix, Bruno Retailleau and Annie Genevard, but she obviously did not forget that LR told her missed despite the concessions made at the time of the pension reform. This time it’s different. The Republicans obtained the scalp of Gérald Darmanin on Monday, since relegated to the background of the negotiations: “If we understand correctly, Borne is still the Prime Minister”, laughs a right-wing tenor, not unhappy to deal with her.
From now on, the LR leaders like the head of government want a text, them to transform the test after the rejection motion, she to honor the formal order of the president. But they all measure the extent of their internal sensitivities. They know that no group will follow instructions as one. “We have the same issue, we are mirrors,” confides Annie Genevard, LR MP who will sit on the CMP and attends the meetings in Matignon.
Marine Le Pen looks at them, just waiting for the negotiations to fail. If the government does not legislate, it will seek to do so. Elisabeth Borne like Eric Ciotti noted that the RN deputy has already tabled a bill “to lift the exemptions to the possibility of expelling a foreigner whose presence in France constitutes a serious threat to order audience”. Doesn’t that remind you of anything? These measures appear in the Darmanin project.
Should we let him have his hand? Also Elisabeth Borne would have wanted to bring about a text with only priority measures, in particular those which allow the removal of people who could harm the security of the country, but she did not succeed in convincing the right-wing senators.
Matignon sets a course of action: speak politely, listen to each other, gain a little perspective on the debates, build compromises with respect for everyone, avoid pointing out and insulting partners. It seems that this is not the sketch of Gérald Darmanin in recent weeks… Emmanuel Macron also took advantage of the council of ministers to question LR’s attitude? At Matignon, we notice that Elisabeth Borne remained silent. She.
In this tense climate, the public advice of Bruno Le Maire (“The only way today for a law to pass is to take up the Senate version, hoping that the LR understands that we must move the lines on two sensitive points for our majority: state medical aid and the conditions of access to social assistance”) were welcomed as would be a recommendation from a friend who wishes you well – for some time now, Elisabeth Borne understood that he was eyeing his place even more than the others. Matignon refers the Minister of the Economy to his files, or better to his deficits, to the reduction of which he would be very wise to devote himself 100%.
It’s like this: there is the text, and the context. Elisabeth Borne is aware of the maneuvers that have resumed around her succession. She knows that some of the president’s grumps who until now supported her have abandoned her and are now pleading for the January revolution – a palace revolution, that is, with a change of host at Matignon.
“It does not print but it does not demerit, it does not contribute but it does not cost,” remarked a few days ago an intimate of the president. As history mocks, the fate of Elisabeth Borne is now linked to her best internal enemy, the minister of the same name: thanks to the completely involuntary contribution of Gérald Darmanin, she has the opportunity to bring something. A godsend at a time when Emmanuel Macron is once again seized by one of his customary frenzies of reinvention. A godsend, or a fatal trap.
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